Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

MAIN FORECAST DIFFICULTIES INVOLVE BOUNDARY POSITIONS...ESPECIALLY
THRU NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EFFECTS ON STRONG CONVECTION/HEAVY
RAINFALL.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS PERCHED ACROSS SRN THIRD OF FA WHILE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NE LA INTO NE MS. WILL SEE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT
INTO OHIO WHILE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HANG AROUND 1.5 INCHES CENTRAL/SRN MS. ETA HITS MSTR
HARDEST MAINTAINING DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S THRU THE DAY. MODELS AGREE
ON INCRG UPR DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF STRONG UPPER JET CORE. 850 MB JET DIMINISHES TODAY AND
BECOMES MORE WLY BUT AMS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH DECENT CAPE AND
LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND RESPECTABLE SHEAR. WILL ADD MENTION OF A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE SRN AREAS TODAY.

SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO SRN LA/MS TONIGHT AS STALLED BOUNDARY HANGS
ACROSS S AND E MS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1.5
INCHES SECTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN MS AND 850 MB FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
SLY S OF THE BOUNDARY. AREA REMAINS IN STRONG UPPER DIV AS JET CORE
INTENSIFIES TO THE N. AMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE BUT PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SE.

BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS SE CORNER OF MS TUE MRNG AND FINALLY
SHIFTS EWD TUE AFTERNOON. MODELS DIMINISHING MOISTURE FROM THE NW
ALTHO ETA HOLDS ONTO HIGHER DEWPTS LONGER SE CORNER TUE AFTN. SWLY
850 MB FLOW DECREASES BY 18Z AND CAPE VALUES VERY LIMITED. WILL KEEP
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SE ZONES WITH LIMITED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

MEAN TROF SHIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT AND 850 MB TEMPS
DROP BELOW ZERO DEGREES N AND CENTRAL. ETA MAINTAINS ENOUGH MSTR FOR
LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE EVENING BUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS
MID/UPPER LAYERS FINALLY DRY.

WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS THRU EXTENDED PERIOD WITH COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY MINS...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE REGION SAT THEN LIGHT SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 78/58/65/40 564-
MEI 77/60/66/41 6852

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE
MS...FFA THRU MON AFTN FOR CNTRL AND S MS (MSZ043>046-048>059)

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0603 AM CST SUN APR 06 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND WEST MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. THEY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM BUDE TO
HAZLEHURST TO MERIDIAN. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THE AIR
MASS WILL DESTABILIZE. UPPER LEVEL WIND WILL INTENSIFY AND
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT LIFT TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO RESULT IN
STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST BY SUNSET. THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI
LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE.

...FLOODING...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MOST OF
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF PONDING CAN BE
EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS DURING AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER EAST
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A STALLED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. THE AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN HUMID AND UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INTENSE WIND
FIELDS WILL REDEVELOP. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BASTROP LOUISIANA TO YAZOO
CITY MISSISSIPPI TO DEKALB.  THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
062100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
722 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF REGION TODAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND WEST MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. THEY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM BUDE TO
HAZLEHURST TO MERIDIAN. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.
LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THE AIR
MASS WILL DESTABILIZE. UPPER LEVEL WIND WILL INTENSIFY AND
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT LIFT TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE TO RESULT IN
STRONG FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST BY SUNSET. THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI
LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE.