Alert archive / Mississippi / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Jackson, MS

February 21, 2003Tensas Parish, Louisiana; Claiborne County, Jefferson County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this flash flood warning at Feb 21, 2003, 1:55 PM CST for Tensas Parish, Louisiana; Claiborne County, Jefferson County, Mississippi. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 21, 2003, 1:55 PM CST (19:55 UTC)
Expired: Feb 21, 2003, 7:50 PM CST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: NWS Jackson, MS
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Tensas Parish, LA, Claiborne County, MS, Jefferson County, MS

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 231 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 362 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -40 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 469 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 380 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 504 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 5.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KJAN 211954
FFWJAN
LAC107-MSC021-063-220150-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
155 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  TENSAS PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
  JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
  CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 750 PM CST

* AT 150 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED RAIN AND 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SINCE THE SOIL IS 
COMPLETELY SATURATED BY PREVIOUS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 12 
HOURS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RUN OFF 
AND WILL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MINOR STREET 
FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY.

MOST DEATHS IN FLASH FLOODING OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3199 9134 3178 9125 3172 9077 3204 9084
          3207 9126

$$

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 212337
FFSJAN
LAC107-MSC021-063-220030-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
530 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...

TENSAS PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

UNTIL 750 PM CST.

AT 530 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF 
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.  BETWEEN 4 AND 6 
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING AND RAINFALL RATES IN 
THE PAST HOUR APPROACHED 1 INCH.  FLOODING OF LOCAL STREAM AND 
CREEKS WILL CONTINUE.

$$

GAGAN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Feb 21, 11:43 AM CST, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 21, 11:43 AM CST, 2 hours 12 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1140 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2002

SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IDENTIFIED ON SFC ANALYSIS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
FROM N LA NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH N MS. ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDS A
DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SE TX THROUGH S LA. A SHIELD OF RAIN HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS SOUTHERNMOST BOUNDARY AND WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WARM FRONT ITSELF MAY MAKE IT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS IS
DEBATABLE. THE FRONT MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT THAT FAR. THUS GOING HIGH
TEMPS NEED TO BE LOWERED. POPS LOOK FINE AND WILL NOT CHANGE. HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM AND FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

WILL UPDATE ZONES TO ADJUST AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS AND WINDS.  ZONES
AND GRIDS OUT SHORTLY.

GAGAN

......................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...........................

...FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TODAY AND THE
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHAPING UP FOR TONIGHT...

LOCAL 88-DS ARE ALREADY LIT UP THIS MORNING WITH MODERATE RAIN
FALLING ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS STILL SOUTHWEST
OF THE CWA ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI SHORTLY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS THE
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. WITH 24-HR QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES AND LOCAL AMOUNTS OF
THREE TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT
WL EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE WHOLE CWA.

THE MAIN EVENT IS STILL SLATED FOR TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER OLD
MEXICO THIS MORNING APPROACHES OUR AREA AND HELPS DEEPEN THE LOW
ALREADY FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. THE SFC LOW WILL
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DELTA REGION. FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO
COME TOGETHER TONIGHT TO PRODUCE A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA TONIGHT. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED OUR AREA IN A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VICKSBURG TO GRENADA
WITH A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE. WRAP AROUND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY NOON. SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS DRY BUT A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND SQUEEZE OUT SOME MORE RAIN. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

JAN 69/53/58/40/67 ++401
MEI 69/55/60/38/67 ++501

.JAN...
AR...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALL ZONES SE AR.
LA...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALL ZONES NE LA.
MS...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ALL ZONES.

22

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 21, 1:12 PM CST, 43 minutes before

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
221200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
112 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A STRONG AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY
AND BRING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING TO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES NORTH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. AS THIS LOW
INTENSIFIES...A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AND ALLOW FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA TO BE LOCATED IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER...IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...WILL OCCUR
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. THE SECOND AREA...WILL BE LOCATED
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84...BUT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RAYVILLE LOUISIANA
TO YAZOO CITY TO STARKVILLE MISSISSIPPI. THIS AREA WILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING DAMAGIN WINDS TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT HAVE THE HIGH
POTENTIAL AS THE SOUTHERN AREA HAS. THE THIRD AREA WILL BE
LOCATED NORTH OF A LINE FROM  RAYVILLE LOUISIANA TO YAZOO CITY TO
STARKVILLE MISSISSIPPI. THIS AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...FLOODING...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THROUGH 7
PM...AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING...WITH THE ENTIRE AREA BEING EFFECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA HAS ALREADY SEE 3 TO
5 INCHES OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW LOCATIONS HAVING FLOODING
PROBLEMS. THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND FLOODING MAY BECOME SIGNIFICANT. STAY
INFORMED OF THE LATEST WARNINGS AND FORECASTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF HAM RADIO OPERATORS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL AND STORM SPOTTERS...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 21, 9:24 AM CST, 4 hours 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
924 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0720 AM    2W BROOKHAVEN             MS   FLOODING
02/21/03   LINCOLN                        STREET FLOODING. PERSON
                                          DROVE CAR INTO A FLOODED
                                          AREA (FERN LANE). PERSON
                                          WAS RESCUED BY EMERGENCY
                                          PERSONNEL. REPORTED BY
                                          LINCOLN COUNTY EMA.

0720 AM    6W BROOKHAVEN             MS   FLOODING
02/21/03   LINCOLN                        STREET FLOODING. WATER
                                          COVERING HWY 550.
                                          REPORTED BY LINCOLN
                                          COUNTY EMA.

Local storm report, Feb 21, 9:48 AM CST, 4 hours 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
948 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0800 AM    8SW SONTAG                MS   FLOODING
02/21/03   LAWRENCE                       STREET FLOODING. RABBIT
                                          ROAD. REPORTED BY
                                          LAWRENCE COUNTY EMA.

Local storm report, Feb 21, 10:48 AM CST, 3 hours 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1048 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0530 AM    1W VAUGHAN                MS   FLOODING
02/21/03   YAZOO                          A SECTION OF BEND ROAD
                                          HAS BEEN WASHED OUT.
                                          REPORTED BY YAZOO COUNTY
                                          EMA.

0530 AM    10E YAZOO CITY            MS   FLOODING
02/21/03   YAZOO                          WATER COVERING PARADISE
                                          ROAD. REPORTED BY YAZOO
                                          COUNTY EMA.

Local storm report, Feb 21, 11:22 AM CST, 2 hours 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1122 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0930 AM    4W GWINVILLE              MS   FLOODING
02/21/03   JEFFERSON DAVIS                DODGER ROAD FLOODED.
                                          REPORTED BY JEFFERSON
                                          DAVIS COUNTY SHERIFFS
                                          OFFICE.

Local storm report, Feb 21, 12:26 PM CST, 1 hour 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1226 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1220 PM    3S LITTLE SPRINGS         MS   FLOODING
02/21/03   FRANKLIN MS                    STREET FLOODING. PERSONS
                                          DROVE CAR INTO A FLOODED
                                          AREA (RIVER ROAD).
                                          REPORTED BY FRANKLIN MS
                                          COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 21, 10:00 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Catahoula	3 hr
Feb 21, 10:00 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Catahoula	3 hr
Feb 21, 6:06 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Covington, Jefferson Davis	39 min
Feb 21, 9:00 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Lincoln	3 hr
Feb 21, 11:30 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Covington	3 hr
Feb 21, 12:00 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Lincoln	6 hr
Feb 21, 12:17 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Franklin	6 hr
Feb 21, 12:43 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Franklin	37 min
Feb 21, 12:57 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Jefferson	43 min
Feb 21, 2:12 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Copiah, Simpson, Smith	6 hr
Feb 21, 3:18 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Covington	3 hr
Feb 21, 4:51 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Jones	6 hr
Feb 21, 5:01 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Lamar, Marion	6 hr
Feb 21, 5:48 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Franklin, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Lincoln	6 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2003 Flash Flood Warnings in Louisiana, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.