Alert archive / Mississippi / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Jackson, MS

June 11, 2003Bolivar County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this flash flood warning at Jun 11, 2003, 6:18 PM CDT for Bolivar County, Mississippi. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 11, 2003, 6:18 PM CDT (23:18 UTC)
Expired: Jun 11, 2003, 9:30 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Jackson, MS
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Bolivar County, MS

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 154 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 127 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 67 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -109 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 913 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 128 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 214 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KJAN 112322
FFWJAN
MSC011-120230-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
618 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN BOLIVAR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 618 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM 6 MILES EAST OF SHELBY 
TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROSEDALE.  THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY 
STATIONARY.

RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN 
IN THE ROSEDALE AREA OF NORTHWEST BOLIVAR COUNTY.  THUNDERSTORMS 
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
HOURS IN THIS AREA.  LOCALIZED STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE 
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH FLOODING OF STREAMS...CREEKS...AND LOW 
LYING AREAS LIKELY. 

LAT...LON 3413 9097 3400 9112 3384 9107 3385 9066
          3413 9068

$$

CRAVEN

2 follow-up statements

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 120124
FFSJAN
MSC011-120230-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
823 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

*FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...
 BOLIVAR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

RADAR ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER 
BOLIVAR COUNTY. RAINFALL ESTIMATED TOTALS WERE FROM 5 TO 6 
INCHES...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLOODING OF 
ROADWAYS...SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS IS 
LIKELY.


$$

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 120221
FFSJAN
MSC011-120315-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
917 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 930 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHERN BOLIVAR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

AT 915 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT 
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAD ENDED ACROSS BOLIVAR COUNTY.  RADAR ESTIMATES 
SHOW THAT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE GUNNISON AND 
ROSEDALE AREAS.  

RUNOFF AND STANDING WATER FROM THESE EARLY RAINS WILL LIKELY 
CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 
FEW HOURS IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN NEW FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF BOLIVAR COUNTY. 

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING BOLIVAR COUNTY FROM ARKANSAS 
ONCE AGAIN...THE LATEST ROUND OF STORMS WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN 
PARTS OF THE COUNTY WHERE EARLY RAINS HAVE BEEN MUCH LIGHTER.  

$$

CRAVEN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jun 11, 3:40 PM CDT, 2 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 11, 3:40 PM CDT, 2 hours 38 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 CDT WED JUN 10 2003

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING FORECAST EARLY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS
TROUGH. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
UPSTREAM BUT DISAGREE ON THE LOCATION. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE AVN
SOLUTION WHICH MAINTAINS SYSTEM FARTHER WEST THRU DAYBREAK BUT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS WRN ZONES FOR THU MORNING.

COLD FRONT REMAINING N OF REGION UNTIL THE WEEKEND BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LINGER TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE TRACK PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THU AS THE UPPER
JET NOSES INTO SW MS. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE STRENGTH LOOKS WEAKER
TOMORROW AND 850 MB FLOW TO BE LIGHTER...INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT IN OUR REGION OF DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR AT
LEAST HIGH END CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS. MOST CONCERNED ABOUT
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES...WHERE
UPPER DIVERGENCE LOOK STRONGER AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY LOOKS GREATEST NRN ZONES WHERE HIGH THETAE AND CAPE MAX
SITS NEAR THE MS/TN BORDER. CHANCE LOOKS SMALLER NRN ZONES AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL BROAD BRUSH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBILITY ALL ZONES FOR
THU.

WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. AVN INCREASES STRENGTH OF VORT LOBE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF MCS DEVELOPMENT LATE.
OTHER FEATURES NO NOT OFFER MUCH SUPPORT TO THIS AT THIS TIME SO
WILL GO WITH DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION THU
NIGHT BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE FRIDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.
VERTICAL VELOCITY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE VALUES INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
MEANS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. WILL KEEP
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. SRN TIP OF GOOD DYNAMICS
SWINGS ACROSS NW MS OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO NW
AR. WILL LEAVE KEEP ISOLATED CONVECTION OTHER ZONES...MAINLY IN THE
EVENING HOURS.

GOOD DIVERGENT PATTERN SETTING UP ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW SETTLES
INTO THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS JUST UPSTREAM. GOOD THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS INTO NW MS. THE 12Z GFS DRAGS THE BOUNDARY
SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WHILE THE 00Z RUN MAINTAINS THE
BOUNDARY ALONG OF N OF NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WED. UPPER LOW NOW MAINTAINED JUST W OF THE MS RIVER THRU WED SO
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN THROUGH EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 11, 3:31 PM CDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
122031-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS FROM 60 TO 70 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES FORMED AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...CAUSING MANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
HEATING...MOISTURE AND OLD BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO MORE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SETTLE  OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AROUND SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND PROVIDE A
STEADY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 11, 2:09 PM CDT, 4 hours 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
209 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1200 PM    DECATUR                   MS   WIND DAMAGE
06/11/03   NEWTON                         A FEW TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY NEWTON COUNTY
                                          SHERIFFS OFFICE.

Local storm report, Jun 11, 2:12 PM CDT, 4 hours 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
212 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1250 PM                              MS   WIND DAMAGE
06/11/03   OKTIBBEHA                      NUMEROUS TREES DOWN
                                          COUNTY WIDE. REPORTED BY
                                          4 COUNTY ELECTRIC POWER
                                          ASSOCIATION.

Local storm report, Jun 11, 2:23 PM CDT, 3 hours 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
223 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1155 PM    STONEWALL                 MS   60 MPH WIND GUST
06/11/03   CLARKE                         PUBLIC REPORT.

Local storm report, Jun 11, 3:29 PM CDT, 2 hours 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
329 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 PM    HARRISONBURG              LA   WIND DAMAGE
06/11/03   CATAHOULA                      LARGE LIMBS DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY POLICE.

Local storm report, Jun 11, 4:05 PM CDT, 2 hours 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0400 PM    PARCHMAN                  MS   60 MPH WIND GUST
06/11/03   SUNFLOWER                      REPORTED BY NATIONAL
                                          WEATHER SERVICE STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

Local storm report, Jun 11, 4:51 PM CDT, 1 hour 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
451 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0445 PM    MANTEE                    MS   WIND DAMAGE
06/11/03   WEBSTER                        A FEW TREES DOWN. PUBLIC
                                          REPORT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 11, 10:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Simpson	25 min
Jun 11, 10:36 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Smith	44 min
Jun 11, 10:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Rankin	22 min
Jun 11, 11:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Jasper	59 min
Jun 11, 11:31 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Carroll	39 min
Jun 11, 11:40 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Newton	30 min
Jun 11, 11:45 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Clarke, Lauderdale	60 min
Jun 11, 11:50 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Montgomery	30 min
Jun 11, 12:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Webster	28 min
Jun 11, 12:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Webster	26 min
Jun 11, 12:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Kemper	40 min
Jun 11, 12:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Clay	61 min
Jun 11, 12:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Clay	58 min
Jun 11, 12:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Lowndes, Oktibbeha	61 min
Jun 11, 3:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Bolivar	44 min
Jun 11, 3:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Sunflower	26 min
Jun 11, 4:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Clay, Webster	44 min
Jun 11, 5:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Bolivar	64 min
Jun 11, 5:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Grenada	62 min
Jun 11, 6:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Bolivar, Sunflower	52 min
Jun 11, 6:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Grenada	44 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.