Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
234 PM EST MON JUL 7 2003

ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WORKS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHER THAN A FEW CU
AROUND...CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE BACK INTO IA. EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE BACK IN IA/IL WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH NOTHING CLEAR AT THIS TIME FOR
EXACT TRACK OR TIMING...WILL GO SCT WORDING FOR THIS EVE AND CHC FOR
TONIGHT. TUESDAY...DEEP MSTR IN PLACE AS WELL AS ANY LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES AND LOWS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY STIR UP
CONVECTION AGAIN. WILL GO LIKELY NORTH HALF OF CWA AND HIGH CHC IN
SOUTH. TUES NGT LOOKS VERY WET AND STORMY. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS
ALL AREAS.

WITH NO END IN THE FLOODING THREAT FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WILL
EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BASED ON RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT AND THIS AM...WILL EXPAND THE WATCH TO COVER STARKE
COUNTY...TO KOSCIUSKO...TO ALLEN INDIANA...TO PUTNAM COUNTY OHIO.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GETS TRICKIER AS MODELS TRY TO MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ETA CLEARS THE FRONT DURING
WEDS AFTN...WHILE THE GFS HANGS IT UP...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. PERSISTENCE IN ORDER HERE...SO WILL KEEP WITH
CHC POPS WEDS-THURS.

TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS WELL WITH CONVECTIONS/CLOUDS AROUND. CURRENT
SETUP LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GFS EXHIBITED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH 500 MB TROUGH AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE
ADDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
WEAK IMPULSES INDICATED IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP LATER PERIODS OF EXTENDED DRY.

.IWX...
IN...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR ZONES INZ012>018...
INZ020...INZ022>027...INZ032>034.

MI...NONE.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR ZONES OHZ015>016...
OHZ024>025.

FISHER/BARJENBRUCH

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-081015-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
509 AM EST MON JUL 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MOST LIKELY THREATS.

FLOODING IS STILL A THREAT OVER PARTS OF INDIANA SOUTH OF US ROUTE
30 WHERE RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN HIGH OR OUT OF THEIR BANKS.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY WHICH MAY CAUSE MORE
FLOOD PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT FROM ANY
STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES, OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
0702 PM EST MON JUL 07 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0659 PM    WILLSHIRE                 OH   FLOOD
07/07/03   VAN WERT                       STATE OF EMERGENCY WAS
                                          DECLARED IN THE EXTREME
                                          SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF VAN
                                          WERT COUNTY. US 33 IS
                                          CLOSED ON THE OHIO SIDE AND
                                          STATE ROUTE 81 AND 49
                                          AROUND WILLSHIRE ALONG THE
                                          ST MARYS RIVER IS CLOSED
                                          DUE TO FLOODING. REPORTED
                                          BY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

WAMSLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1130 PM EST MON JUL 07 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1128 PM    4 S WOLCOTT               IN   0 MPH WIND GUST
07/07/03   WHITE                          65 T0 70 MPH WINDS.
                                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

STEVENS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1214 AM EST TUE JUL 08 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1155 PM    10 W PLYMOUTH             IN   WIND DAMAGE
07/07/03   MARSHALL                       TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

1154 PM    ROYAL CENTER              IN   WIND DAMAGE
07/07/03   CASS                           TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

1154 PM    LOGANSPORT                IN   WIND DAMAGE
07/07/03   CASS                           TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

1130 PM    LA PORTE                  IN   WIND DAMAGE
07/07/03   LA PORTE                       TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN.

1115 PM    FRANCESVILLE              IN   WIND DAMAGE
07/07/03   PULASKI                        TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTE BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

STEVENS