Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. ELEVATED CONVECTION...FED
BY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. GFS
HANDLES THE QPF FIELDS BEST WITH THIS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL...AND
WL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT EASTERN AREAS FOR POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. BELIEVE ETA HAS BETTER HANDLE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.
LIKE ITS SLOWER FRONT DEPICTION...AS NUMEROUS WAVES ALONG THE FRONT
LIKELY TO KEEP IT FROM MOVING THROUGH AS QUICKLY AS GFS SUGGESTS.
THIS KEEPS CHANCE OF THUNDER IN SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

NEXT WAVE TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER
SUNDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BEFORE THIS...FEATURES ENHANCING PCPN CHANCES
MORE DIFFUSE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY...00Z GFS RUN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS CYCLE THAT LONGWAVE TROF WILL DIG OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING COOLER SUMMERTIME TEMPS TO REGION. WAS
TEMPTED TO BRING LOW DAYTIME PCPN CHANCES INTO FORECAST WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT. SURROUNDING OFFICES DRY AND CHANCES FAIRLY LOW...SO
LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

ONLY MINOR TWEEKS TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.ILX...NONE.

PLAHMER

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-191100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
547 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND THIS EVENING FOR PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
MACOMB...TO LINCOLN...TO PARIS LINE.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL TRIGGER PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  THE
STORMS WILL COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE WEB ADDRESS SHOULD BE ALL IN LOWER CASE.

BARNES

ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-180830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
304 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 755 HAS EXPIRED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH HAD BEEN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAS EXPIRED. THIS INCLUDED AREAS AROUND
GALESBURG...PEORIA...BLOOMINGTON...LINCOLN...CHAMPAIGN...AND
DANVILLE.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ILLINOIS AT 3 AM.
WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...
FLOODING RAIN WILL BE MORE OF A THREAT.

FURTHER NORTHWEST...A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
TOWARD SUNRISE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
551 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 AM    TAYLORVILLE               IL   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/03   CHRISTIAN                      NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. TREES
                                          DOWN ON HOUSES. POWER POLES
                                          DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO
                                          REPORTED BY CHRISTIAN
                                          COUNTY SHERIFF.

HJS