Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. ELEVATED CONVECTION...FED
BY WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. GFS
HANDLES THE QPF FIELDS BEST WITH THIS EARLY MORNING RAINFALL...AND
WL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT EASTERN AREAS FOR POTENTIAL OF HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. BELIEVE ETA HAS BETTER HANDLE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.
LIKE ITS SLOWER FRONT DEPICTION...AS NUMEROUS WAVES ALONG THE FRONT
LIKELY TO KEEP IT FROM MOVING THROUGH AS QUICKLY AS GFS SUGGESTS.
THIS KEEPS CHANCE OF THUNDER IN SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

NEXT WAVE TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER
SUNDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BEFORE THIS...FEATURES ENHANCING PCPN CHANCES
MORE DIFFUSE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY...00Z GFS RUN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS CYCLE THAT LONGWAVE TROF WILL DIG OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING COOLER SUMMERTIME TEMPS TO REGION. WAS
TEMPTED TO BRING LOW DAYTIME PCPN CHANCES INTO FORECAST WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT. SURROUNDING OFFICES DRY AND CHANCES FAIRLY LOW...SO
LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

ONLY MINOR TWEEKS TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.ILX...NONE.

PLAHMER

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-181100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1150 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY AND
ISOLATED TORNADO.  THE PRIMARY LOCATION WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO DANVILLE LINE.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS ILLINOIS.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.  THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS LINE.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ILLINOIS
ON MONDAY AND PROVIDE FOR A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

SMITH

ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-180830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
304 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 755 HAS EXPIRED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH HAD BEEN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAS EXPIRED. THIS INCLUDED AREAS AROUND
GALESBURG...PEORIA...BLOOMINGTON...LINCOLN...CHAMPAIGN...AND
DANVILLE.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ILLINOIS AT 3 AM.
WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...
FLOODING RAIN WILL BE MORE OF A THREAT.

FURTHER NORTHWEST...A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
TOWARD SUNRISE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

GEELHART