Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
245 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

AREA RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS DOWN TOWARD SOUTHEAST INDIANA. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FOCUS OF
LOW LEVEL JET/CONVERGENCE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
FOR THIS MORNING SO THINK CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. WILL THEREFORE...EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH SOUTH TO INCLUDE
ENTIRE FA FOR TODAY. EXPECT CURRENT PCPN TO PUSH EAST INTO FA
THROUGH MID MORNING AND THEN LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING LEFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WITH AIRMASS REMAINING UNSTABLE...WILL HAVE TO HANG ON TO A
CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY. PWS ON THE HIGH SIDE...IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. 1HR
FFG GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS SO ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE
SOME PROBLEMS.

MODELS PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER PUSHING FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NGM
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS ETA/GFS. BOTH ETA/GFS SHOWING GOOD DYNAMICS AND
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND WILL LIKELY SEE SQUALL LINE PUSH
EAST INTO FA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
TONIGHT. LOW POPS LOOK GOOD FOR EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST BEFORE
DRYING WORKS IN. GOOD CAA AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND FRONT SO
WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS GOING FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.ILN....FLOOD WATCH TODAY ENTIRE FA.

LOTT

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
612 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED EASTERN INDIANA IN A MODERATE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE
AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THIS MORNING WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH COULD CONTAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...LASTING
INTO MONDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT EITHER
WIND ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
117 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003

...INCREASING TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...
...THREAT OF FLOODING CONTINUES...

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS INDIANA WILL BE MOVING INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO FORMATION. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WHITEWATER AND MIAMI VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE TRI-STATE
AREA BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM.

ALSO...THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING OR WORSEN FLOOD
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRI-STATE REGION WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

IF CONDITIONS PERSIST...THEN THE THREAT OF TORNADOS AND
FLOODING WILL SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AS WELL
AS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

RESIDENTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD MAINTAIN A HIGH LEVEL
OF AWARENESS TO THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION. NOW IS
THE TIME TO REVIEW YOUR SAFETY PLAN AND KNOW WHAT ACTIONS TO TAKE IF
A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.