Severe Thunderstorm Warning 330, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
330 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2003

FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN HIGH TNGT ACRS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWFA WITH TREMENODUS MSTR AND MODERATE DYNAMICS IN PLACE.  HAVE
COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WL EXTEND THE FFA OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN TIER UNTIL 7 A.M. AND EXPAND/EXTEND THE SOUTHERN TIER
UNTIL NOON.  WL KEEP MOST AREAS NR/SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER OUT OF THE
FFA AS LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN THUS FAR...BUT WILL INCLUDE +RA
WORDING.  SVR THREAT ALSO EXISTS...PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE WITH
EXTREMELY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS...AND SPC HAS JUST ISSUED A BOX FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CWFA.

BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST ON TUE...WITH ALL MODELS NOTING SOME DRYING
IN THE N-NW.  PLENTIFUL MSTR REMAINS HWVR...AND WILL CONT +RA
WORDING OVER THE SOUTH WHERE FRONT SHUD BE MODERATELY ACTIVE.

WILL ISSUE ESF FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OH
RIVER...FOR TUE NGT INTO WED AS THE NEXT SURGE OF TROPICAL MSTR
ARRIVES.  THINK THE ETA IS PUSHING MSTR TOO FAR NORTH...AND I LIKE
THE MORE SHEARED OUT GFS SOLN.  AT ANY RATE...AFTER THE XPCTD +RA
TNGT INTO TUE...AND THE AMNT OF MSTR XPCTD...CUD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF EXCESSIVE RAIN.

.ILN...
OH...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052.  FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY OHZ053>056-060>065-070>074-077.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY KYZ091>093.

JOHNSTONE

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-011100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
455 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO AND INDIANA
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.  WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THIS COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING.  A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AREAS
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70.  SOUTH OF THIS AREA...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SEVERE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.  MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.
AGAIN...THIS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-012200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1201 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2003

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO...

A FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE
DAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED INSTABILITY TODAY AND THUS LITTLE OR
NO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO.

HOWEVER...FURTHER SOUTH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE. CLOUD COVER WILL THIN ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND FAR
SOUTHERN OHIO...ALLOWING FOR SOME SUNSHINE TODAY. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. A FEW OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

JTD