Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Wilmington, NC

May 31, 2003Bladen County, North Carolina

NWS Wilmington, NC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 31, 2003, 6:52 PM EDT for Bladen County, North Carolina. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 31, 2003, 6:52 PM EDT (22:52 UTC)
Expired: May 31, 2003, 7:30 PM EDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Wilmington, NC
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Bladen County, NC

The radar

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 31, 2:55 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 31 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -31 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1356 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 83 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 127 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS52 KILM 312252
SVRILM
NCC017-312330-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
652 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  BLADEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 647 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER        
  ELIZABETHTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   LAGOON AROUND 700 PM
   KELLY AROUND 710 PM

MORE DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND AFFECT OTHER COMMUNITIES
IN THE WARNED AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3475 7861 3468 7835 3455 7826 3451 7826
          3446 7819 3443 7822 3459 7871

$$

DIGIORGI

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 31, 3:55 PM EDT, 2 hours 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 31, 3:55 PM EDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
355 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

...TORNADO WATCH TIL 8 PM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIME.

STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING BY N OF AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE TO NE WILL SURGE STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
HERE 03Z-06Z AND END THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER SUN AND MON AND THEN HIGH MOVES OFF
THE COAST AND MOISTURE RETURN PER MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BE
QUICK WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

DISAGREEMENT COMES IN PLACEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY. 40 POPS FOR TUE
INTO THU AND THEN MORE AFTN AND EVE CONVECTION THREAT FOR LATER IN
WEEK.

CWF:  PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE STARTED TO RESPOND.  FPSN7 AND 41004 BOTH
SHOWING 20 KT AND 4 FT SEAS.

SCA FLYING ALREADY AS QUITE A SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH UPPER COLD POOL
AND SFC COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.  STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN N OF
MY WATERS...BUT STILL EXPECT A SOLID 25 KT TONIGHT...AND EVEN A
LITTLE STRONGER WITH SOME 35 KT GUSTS IN MY NORTHERN WATERS.
TRAJECTORY QUICKLY GOES OFFSHORE SO THAT WILL KEEP SEAS FROM GETTING
OUT OF HAND.

WINDS TO DIMINISH SUN MORNING...AND GIVEN NW DIRECTION SEAS WILL LAY
DOWN QUICKLY.  SHOULD SEE QUIET WX LATE SUN INTO TUE AS HIGH PRES
SETTLES OVERHEAD MON...THEN SLIPS OFFSHORE BY TUE.

GFS NOW APPEARS TO BE CHANGING DIRECTION DAYS 3-5.  12Z RUN NOW
FASTER IN VEERING WINDS AROUND TO S...WHICH MAY BE FAVORED OVER
WEDGE SCENARIO THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY
DRASTIC CHANGES.

.ILM...
.NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ250-252.
.SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ254-256.

PUBLIC: DIGIORGI
MARINE: RAS

Hazardous weather outlook, May 31, 4:44 AM EDT, 14 hours 8 minutes before

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-311045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
444 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES....EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTERS GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION
OR RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE OR SATELLITE TELEVISION PROVIDER
FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

RAN

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 31, 5:38 PM EDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
538 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0536 PM    WINNABOW                  NC   .75 INCH HAIL
05/31/03   BRUNSWICK

0537 PM    2 NE WILMINGTON           NC   .75 INCH HAIL
05/31/03   NEW HANOVER

MR

Local storm report, May 31, 5:42 PM EDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
542 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0540 PM    5 S WILMINGTON            NC   .75 INCH HAIL
05/31/03   NEW HANOVER

MR

Local storm report, May 31, 5:49 PM EDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
0549 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0542 PM    WILMINGTON                NC   1.00 IN HAIL
05/31/03   NEW HANOVER                    GREENVILLE LOOP ROAD.
                                          REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

RAS

Local storm report, May 31, 5:59 PM EDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
0559 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 PM    RIEGLEWOOD                NC   WIND DAMAGE
05/31/03   COLUMBUS                       LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0500 PM    RIEGLEWOOD                NC   1.75 IN HAIL
05/31/03   COLUMBUS

RAS

Local storm report, May 31, 6:15 PM EDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
615 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0540 PM    4 SW HAMPSTEAD            NC   WIND DAMAGE
05/31/03   PENDER                         WINDS ESTIMATED 50 TO 60
                                          MPH. SEVERAL TREES BLOWN
                                          DOWN. BOAT FLIPPED OFF
                                          TRAILER. SHINGLES OFF
                                          ROOFS. REPORTED BY
                                          WILMINFTON FIRE DEPT.

MR

Local storm report, May 31, 6:21 PM EDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
0621 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0610 PM    RED SPRINGS               NC   0.75 IN HAIL
05/31/03   ROBESON

SRP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wilmington, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 31, 3:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILM	Robeson	59 min
May 31, 3:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILM	Bladen	61 min
May 31, 4:12 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	ILM	Bladen	33 min
May 31, 4:39 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	ILM	Bladen	66 min
May 31, 4:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILM	Columbus, Pender	57 min
May 31, 5:07 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	ILM	Brunswick, Columbus	53 min
May 31, 5:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILM	New Hanover	73 min
May 31, 5:43 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	ILM		92 min
May 31, 6:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILM	Robeson	57 min
May 31, 7:04 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	ILM	Bladen	26 min
May 31, 7:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILM	Pender	49 min
May 31, 7:51 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	ILM		84 min
May 31, 7:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILM	Bladen, Robeson	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.