Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
225 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2003

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...SHOULD BE CLEARING THE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO HANG ONTO EVENING POPS FOR
THE NORTHEASTERNMOST COUNTIES BASED ON LAST MINUTE RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BLEED IN FROM THE NW
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS VEERING AROUND TO
THE NE AND E. A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WILL WORK OUT BEST.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE SFC HIGH PRES NEARLY OVERHEAD.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST HOWEVER WITH A NW FLOW
ALOFT. GFS SUGGESTS AN MCS COULD PROPAGATE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE IN THE OHIO VALLEY TUE...DYING OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS LESS JUICY
AIR EAST OF THE MTNS TUE NIGHT. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OFFSHORE THU AS A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVES NE TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS THU NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL GIVEN THE APPEARANCE OF
THE QPF AND OMEGA FIELDS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY MON AND TUE BUT
SHOW 20-30% POPS WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTORMS POSSIBLE WED AND THU
GIVEN INSTABILITY SHOWN ON GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. 12Z RUN OF THE GFS
OUT PAST 120 HR (AVAILABLE ON NCEP WEBSITE) IS MUCH CLEANER THAN THE
LAST MRF RUN AND SHOWS THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA AROUND 00Z
SAT (FRI EVENING) WITH DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY AS THE NEXT HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MARINE: SEAS CURRENTLY AT MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS AT FRYING
PAN AND THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. SEAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WHICH IS IN LINE W/ THE WAVEWATCH MODEL.
THINK WE WILL BE ABLE TO LOWER THE ADVISORY W/ THE NEXT PKG. SW FLOW
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL VEER TO THE W THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST. BY 12Z SHOULD SEE
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF ILM/S WATERS THOUGH SPEEDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE SINCE CAA WILL BE
LACKING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OH VALLEY SUN...THEN SHIFT OFF THE
COAST DURING MON. THE ETA IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE W/ MOVING THE
HIGH OFF THE COAST. THINK A BLEND IN TIMING IS THE BEST WAY TO GO W/
RESPECT TO THE HIGH. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD BE ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK W/ INLAND AFTN TEMPS IN THE 80S W/ ADJACENT SSTS IN
THE 60S. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE THE EXTENDED WILL BE RELATIVELY
BENIGN W/ RESPECT TO WIND/SEAS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
ILM  58  74  54  77 /  20  0  0  0
FLO  56  79  54  82 /   0  0  0  0
CRE  59  74  55  74 /   0  0  0  0
LBT  56  77  53  81 /   0  0  0  0

.ILM...
.NC...NONE.
.SC...NONE.

PUBLIC: TRA
MARINE: SRP

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
430 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND NOON TODAY. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TODAY. LOCALLY AROUND AN INCH MAY FALL IN THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH FACING
BEACHES TODAY. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL COMBINE
WITH A SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE EFFECTS FROM RIP CURRENTS ARE MOST
COMMONLY SEEN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF LOW TIDE. LOW TIDE TODAY IS
AROUND 11:31 AM AND 11:45 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LONG-STEM RIVERS WILL BE ON THE RISE. IT IS LIKELY THAT RIVERS
ALREADY IN FLOOD...TO INCLUDE THE CAPE FEAR...GREAT PEE DEE AND
WACCAMAW RIVERS WILL REMAIN SO WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. OTHER RIVERS
THAT HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO MAY BEGIN
TO SEE WATER LEVELS RISE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES....EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTERS GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION
OR RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE OR SATELLITE TELEVISION PROVIDER
FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

DIGIORGI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
1125 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1115 AM    SCRANTON                  SC   .75 INCH HAIL
04/26/03   FLORENCE                       DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY
                                          FLORENCE COUNTY 911

1120 AM    SCRANTON                  SC   .75 INCH HAIL
04/26/03   FLORENCE                       FLORENCE COUNTY 911 CENTER
                                          REPORTS HAIL CONTINUING AT
                                          SCRANTON

SRP