Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
909 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2003

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AROUND LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. A SHORT LINE OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM COLUMBIA TO NEAR RALEIGH. COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE FROM SURFACE
HEATING THROUGH THE BROKEN CLOUD COVER. RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS
FROM STRONG SW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS...BUT LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS MEAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
IS A MORE LIKELY THREAT. PLAN ON REPLACING HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE
ZONES AND RAISING POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO LIKELY BASED
ON RADAR TRENDS. FOR TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 70S LOOKS REACHABLE
OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

MARINE: THE TIGHTER PRES GRAD WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY AS
LOW PRES TO THE W MOVES E. SPEEDS HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED AT FPSN7
SINCE MIDNIGHT W/ THE PASSAGE OF A TROF/BOUNDARY...BUT SEAS REMAIN
UP AROUND 8 FT W/ A DOMINANT PERIOD AROUND 8 TO 9 SEC. WILL CONTINUE
W/ THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS THOUGH THEY MAY BE ABLE TO DROP
A LITTLE FASTER THAN WHAT THE 00Z WAVEWATCH DEPICTS UNLESS
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO BECOME ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. CURRENTLY A
RELATIVELY LIGHT W WIND AT FPSN7 AN COASTAL SITES IN THE OMR PRODUCT
BUT WOULD THINK THEY WOULD BACK TO THE SW AND S W/ DIURNAL EFFECTS
AND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TREKS E.

ILM  78  57  75  55 /  60  30  10  0
LBT  77  55  76  53 /  70  20  10  0
FLO  78  56  74  53 /  50  20  10  0
MYR  74  58  74  55 /  50  20  10  0

.ILM...
.NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
.SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.

PUBLIC: TRA
MARINE: SRP

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
430 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AROUND NOON TODAY. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TODAY. LOCALLY AROUND AN INCH MAY FALL IN THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTH FACING
BEACHES TODAY. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL COMBINE
WITH A SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE EFFECTS FROM RIP CURRENTS ARE MOST
COMMONLY SEEN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF LOW TIDE. LOW TIDE TODAY IS
AROUND 11:31 AM AND 11:45 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LONG-STEM RIVERS WILL BE ON THE RISE. IT IS LIKELY THAT RIVERS
ALREADY IN FLOOD...TO INCLUDE THE CAPE FEAR...GREAT PEE DEE AND
WACCAMAW RIVERS WILL REMAIN SO WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. OTHER RIVERS
THAT HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO MAY BEGIN
TO SEE WATER LEVELS RISE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES....EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTERS GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION
OR RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE OR SATELLITE TELEVISION PROVIDER
FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

DIGIORGI