Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
553 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT POPS FOR BASICALLY
COUNTIES NEAR ICT.

CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AS IT WEAKENS.
THIS AREA OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR VIA MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES OFF OF THE RUC. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ,
WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY BUILD WEST AS THE EASTERN END OF
THIS SEGMENT WEAKENS. PREV FCST HAD AFTER MIDNIGHT THINKING FOR POPS
OVER BASICALLY ICT. JUST TOOK THIS OUT WITH THE THINKING THAT SOME
OF THIS WEAK ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT DOWN THIS FAR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

STILL EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GET GOING AGAIN GENERALLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA LATE TNGHT. THIS SCENARIO WL BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR THE EVENING SHIFT AS ITS POSSIBLE STRONG TO SVR STORMS
MAY MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL KS BY 09Z.

LAWSON

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MAIN FCST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TNGHT-FRI NGHT
AS WELL AS THE SVR POTENTIAL.

TNGHT: SHUD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NE AND CENTRAL
KS. AM VERY CONFIDENT THAT STORMS WL DEVELOP TNGHT GENERALLY NEAR
THE KS-NE BORDER. JUST NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS ACTIVITY. CORFIDI VECTORS DO INDICATE A SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION
TO ACTIVITY TNGHT. DO FEEL THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WL ONLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA BASED ON A COUPLE SMALL DETAILS.
FIRST, THE LEFT EXIT OF THE UPPER JET HAS SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHWARD. SECOND THE BEST 850MB CONVERGENCE WL BE MORE TIGHTLY
FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL KS. THE LATEST WS-ETA USING THE KF VERIFIES
THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WL REMAIN GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL AND NE
KS. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO DECREASE OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA
TO SLGHT CHANCE. WL KEEP THIS SLGHT CHANCE DUE TO SOME UPGLIDE STILL
ENCOMPASSING AREA. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND
DECENT 0-6KM SHEAR, A FEW SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRI-FRI NGHT: AREA OF 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND UPGLIDE IN THE
310-315K LAYER WL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRI. WOULD EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE FRI WITH PLENTY OF 850MB MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER AIR PATTERN. LLJ WL ONCE AGAIN KICK IN FRI
NGHT, WITH ITS MAIN FOCUS OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MO.
ISENTROPICS ALSO INDICATE THE BEST UPGLIDE OVER THESE AREAS. ALSO
INTERESTING THAT THE 315K INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF LIFT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

SAT-SUN: WL GO AHEAD AND KEEP A DRY FCST ON SAT, BUT IT COULD BE A
CLOSE CALL WITH PRECIP ENDING OVER SE KS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
LATEST TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF PRECIP. IF
PRECIP DOES AFFECT CWA, IT WL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED SAT MORNING. BY
SAT NGHT-SUN, DOWNGLIDE WL OVERSPREAD THE CWA WITH MOST OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE HIGH PLAINS IN AN UPSLOPE
SCENARIO.

MON-THURS: PREV FCST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK SO REALLY DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES AT ALL.  MED RANGE MODELS REALLY HAVENT CHANGED MUCH
AT ALL FROM YESTERDAYS RUNS. THE ECM CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WITH THE UPPER RIDGE THAN THE GFS. BUT WHICHEVER ONE
VERIFIES, SHUD BE DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHUD PREVAIL WITH COME CU
DEVELOPING EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SO DID
DECREASE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE WED AND WENT MOSTLY SUNNY TUES-THURS.
ONCE AGAIN, NO MAJOR WEATHER MAKERS EXPECTED THROUGH THESE PERIODS.

FCSTID = 7/LAWSON
ICT   72  95  69  90 /  20  40  30  10
HUT   70  93  67  89 /  30  40  20  10
EWK   72  93  67  89 /  30  40  30  10
EQA   70  93  67  89 /  20  40  30  10
WLD   73  97  69  91 /  20  30  40  10
RSL   68  90  63  88 /  50  30  10  10
GBD   68  91  65  89 /  40  30  10  10
SLN   72  93  65  89 /  50  40  10  10
MPR   72  93  67  89 /  30  40  20  10
CFV   71  95  68  90 /  20  40  40  10
CNU   70  92  67  89 /  20  40  40  10
K88   69  91  67  89 /  20  40  30  10

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-011200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
445 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS BY EARLY EVENING, AND THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING
HAIL AND MORE LIKELY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

AS THESE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEY MAY ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, IF THESE STORMS CAN EVOLVE INTO
A LARGE COMPLEX, THE RELATIVE COLD POOL OF AIR BEHIND THESE STORMS
MAY PUSH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, AND IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED