Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1120 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

RECENTLY SENT A GRIDS/ZONE FCST UPDATE FOR THIS PM, MAINLY
TO TWEAK HIGHS UP 1-2 DEG IN CNTRL KS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
WRLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THIS AM IS REALLY GIVING TEMPS A BOOST.
TWEAKED WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 IN CNTRL KS. OTHERWISE,
CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TARGET. COMPLEX OF T-STORMS MOVG THRU SERN NE
AND FAR NERN KS SHOULD LAYOUT AN OUTFLOW BNDRY OVER NERN KS THIS
PM. ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION THAT MAY REFIRE ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BNDRY
SHOULD STAY NE OF OUR FCST AREA THIS PM. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOR OUR EXPECTATIONS ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL TONIGHT, WHICH STILL
LOOKS VALID ATTM.

JMC

-----------------------------------------------------------
359 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

FCST CONCERN...
CNVTV CHCS/TRENDS TNGT THRU FRI NGT...

SGFNT UPR TROF/CLOSED LOW WL CONT TO DROP SSEWD FM WRN ONT ACRS
THE UPR MDWST/WRN GRTLKS THRU SAT. INCRSG NWLY FLO ALOFT WITH
IMPRESSIVE H3 JET WL STREAK ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS/KS RGN AS
PERIODIC SHRTWVS RIPPLE SEWD THRU MEAN FLO. FIRST SUCH FEATURE
WL AFFECT THE AREA TNGT, WITH 65-75KT JET MAX PROGD SEWD ACRS KS.
TEMPS AHD OF DVLPG SFC TROF/CDFNT SHOULD SOAR ON MEAN SWLY LO LVL
FLO, WITH PROGD H8 TEMPS/MEAN THKNS VALUES SUPPORTING NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK READINGS ACRS CNTRL KS. ANTECEDENT LO LVL AIRMASS IS
QUITE DRY AND MSTR RETURN WL BE SLOW, AND CNVTV TEMPS LOOKS TO BE
CLOSE TO XPCTD MAXS. THUS XPCT CNVTN WL HOLD OFF TIL AFT 00Z, IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BETTER CNVGNC NEAR SFC FNT ACRS KS/NEB BORDER.

GENESIS FOR POTNL MCS LKLY TO COME FM NRN KS CNVTN THIS EVE, WITH
SOME CREDENCE FOR TWO SEPARATE COMPLEXES. THE FIRST MAY EVOLVE FM
NCNTRL/NERN KS WHERE LO LVL MSTR CNVGNC MAY BE MAXIMIZED NEAR SFC
FNT. A MODEST LO LVL JET MAY CONT TO FEED THIS DVLPMT AS IT SLIDES
SEWD TWD MO. SOME OF THIS MAY INITIALLY CLIP PTNS OF THE CWA FM
SLN TO W OF EMP TO N OF CNU. POTNL FOR A SECONDARY MCS MAY DVLP
ACRS SWRN NEB/NWRN KS TWD MDNGT IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLO JUST BHND
SFC CDFNT. THIS CNVTN WOULD HAVE BETTER CHCS OF CONTG SEWD ACRS
CNTRL KS OVRNGT, FOCUSING ALG ELEVATED MSTR/INSTBY IN THE H8-H7 LYR.
THE MAINTENANCE OF ANY CNVTN IS OF CONCERN, AS IT WL LKLY ENCOUNTER
A DRIER/MORE STABLE REGIME AS IT MOVS TWD THE SRN CWA. BETTER CHCS
LOOKS TO RESIDE ACRS CNTRL KS, HOWEVER POTNL FOR MCS WITH DEEP COLD
POOL MAY DRIVE CNVTN INTO THE SRN CWA LATE IN THE NGT. AS SUCH,
SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORT HAIL AND MORE LKLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH
CNVTN OVRNGT.

FRI FCST IS SOMEWHAT CONTINGENT ON POTNL EVOLUTION OF XPCTD CNVTN
TNGT, WHICH MAY DRIVE MESOSCALE OUTFLOW PUSHG THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FNT FURTHER S THRU THE CWA. BEST BET FOR THIS IS TO OCCUR ACRS CNTRL
KS, WITH SOME POTNL FOR FNT HANGING UP ACRS THE SRN CWA. THEREFORE,
CONSENSUS IS TO LESSEN OR REMOVE POPS ACRS CNTRL KS BY FRI AFTN,
WITH CHCS CONTG ACRS SCNTRL/SERN KS.

BY SAT, THE UPR LVL LOW WL CONT TO SETTLE SWD ACRS THE WRN GRTLKS,
WHICH SHOULD PUSH CDFNT WELL SWD INTO OKLA. THEREFORE, HAVE TWEAKED
MAXS DOWN A BIT, CLOSE TO CLIMO AND KEPT DRY FCST.

FCSTID = 13/DARMOFAL
ICT   99  70  92  67 /   5  50  40  10
HUT  100  68  90  66 /   5  50  30  10
EWK   99  69  91  67 /   5  50  30  10
EQA   98  69  91  67 /   5  50  50  10
WLD   98  71  94  69 /   5  40  50  20
RSL  100  65  88  63 /  10  60  30   5
GBD  101  66  89  65 /  10  60  30  10
SLN  101  67  90  65 /  10  60  30  10
MPR  100  67  90  66 /   5  50  30  10
CFV   96  71  93  68 /   5  40  50  20
CNU   96  70  90  66 /   5  50  50  20
K88   96  69  89  66 /   5  50  50  20

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-011200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
445 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS BY EARLY EVENING, AND THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING
HAIL AND MORE LIKELY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

AS THESE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEY MAY ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, IF THESE STORMS CAN EVOLVE INTO
A LARGE COMPLEX, THE RELATIVE COLD POOL OF AIR BEHIND THESE STORMS
MAY PUSH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, AND IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED