Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
703 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

PRIND TSTMS WL CONT TO DVLP THRU 03Z.  MODIFIED RUC SNDGS IN SE KS
YIELD ABT 2500 CAPE/80 CIN.  ERY ON, MAIN THREAT SHUD BE MAINLY WIND
AND MARGINAL HAIL.  HOWEVER AS LLVL WNDS BACK/INCR THRU SUNSET,
BELIEVE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL/TORNADOES WL INCR.  CURRENT MEAN
STORM MOTION IS ABT 230/50KTS. RIGHT MOVERS SHUD TRACK CLOSER TO
270/35KT.  BELIEVE DEEPER MSTR CURRENTLY OVR SE KS WL ADVECT NW AS
LLVL WNDS INCR/BACK, SPREADING THREAT OF TSTMS/SVR WX NW WITH
RETREATING DRYLN.

HOWERTON

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334 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

TONIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY:
CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.  APPEARS MAIN FOCUS WILL AGAIN BE OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS CREPT A BIT NWRD SINCE
12Z.  WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING IN SERN ZONES WITH INITIATION AFTER
23Z OR SO.

SATURDAY:
GOOD WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AS LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST.  SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MAINLY EARLY...BUT EXPECT MAINLY
MORE SHOWERY TYPE WEST WITH SOME TRW FURTHER TO THE EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY:
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SWD WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY-FRIDAY:
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH
SOME WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  WILL
RETAIN MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES TO THE SOUTH AND SFC FRONT DRAGS ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT.  WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW AS FCST AREA REMAINS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

FCSTID =   16
ICT   61  74  48  70 /  40  30  10   5
HUT   57  71  46  68 /  30  30  10   5
EWK   61  74  47  69 /  40  30  10   5
EQA   64  76  48  68 /  50  30  10   5
WLD   65  79  51  73 /  40  30  10   5
RSL   52  64  44  65 /  20  20  10   5
GBD   53  64  45  64 /  20  20  10   5
SLN   56  68  46  68 /  30  30  10   5
MPR   60  73  47  69 /  40  30  10   5
CFV   68  82  52  73 /  60  30  10   5
CNU   67  81  51  68 /  60  30  10   5
K88   67  81  50  67 /  60  30  10   5

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED SPELLING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
459 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE RETURN FOR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND MAKE THINGS FEEL QUITE UNCONFORTABLE BY DAYS END WITH
HEAT INDICES REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THIS WILL SET UP
THE ENVIRONMENT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WHICH WILL GIVE MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS A SHOT OF SEVERE STORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL MOST LIKELY FIRE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND SUNSET AND THEN
MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE
SITUATED ALONG THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER DURING THE EVENING.
THESE STRONG STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF
INTESTATE 35 AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING MID
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO STAY TUNED
TO LATER STATEMENTS.

FOR ALL STORM CHASERS/SPOTTERS OUT THERE...YOUR REAL-TIME SEVERE
WEATHER REPORTS ARE EXTREMELY VITAL TO US. BE SURE TO RELAY YOUR
SIGHTINGS OF HAIL/WINDS AND ESPECIALLY TORNADOES TO US AT THE NWS OR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES (AND THEY WL RELAY YOUR REPORTS TO
US). OUR PRIMARY AMATEUR RADIO FREQUENCY IN SOUTHEAST KS IS 145.13.
SECONDARY IS 147.21. AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OUT PRIMARY FREQUENCY IS
146.820.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

COX