Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
725 AM CDT THU APR 24 2003

AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY (DUE TO THE NEW TORNADO
WATCH). STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE GOING UP FAST AND HOLD-
ING TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST. 41/47

.HGX...SCEC BAYS AND 0-20 NM COASTAL WATERS.
       SCA 20-60 NM COASTAL WATERS.

PRELIMS...
CLL TU 083/059 082/055 082 700
IAH TU 082/062 082/057 083 700
GLS TU 078/069 078/063 078 700

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION STARTING TO MOVE INTO SE TX THIS MORNING. THIS INITIAL
ROUND COMING VIA DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER N/C TX. AN-
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IS FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET COULD
GET THINGS GOING IN THIS REGION AOA SUNRISE. DIFLUENCE ALOFT/DWPT
VALUES AOA 70/STRONG LL INFLOW ALL SEEM TO POINT TO WIDESPREAD DE-
VELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP (PER CRP SOUNDINGS) WHICH
SEEMS TO HAVE WON OUT YESTERDAY FOR THE MOST PART. ATTM...NOT TOO
INCLINED TO DROP FIRST PD POPS VERY MUCH GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARAMETERS THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE BUT A VERY SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN
MAY NOT BE A BAD IDEA. WILL ALSO LIKELY RETAIN THE MENTION OF SVR
FOR E/NERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR THE FIRST PERIOD (PER SPC DY1)
BUT WILL PROBABLY DROP THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY AREAWIDE.

WHILE MODELS HAVE NOT PERFORMED ALL THAT WELL THESE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH THE SPECIFICS OF THE S/WS AND SUCH THERE IS STILL DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK LATE-SEASON COOL FRONT WILL BRING MUCH DRIER
(BUT NOT NECESSARILY COOLER) AIR INTO THE CWA BY FRI AFTN. PROGGED
FLATTISH UPPER RIDGE TO KEEP THE WEATHER OVER SE TX SEASONABLE/DRY
/QUIET OVER THE WEEKEND. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EXTENDED
ATTM. 41/47

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-242359-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
719 AM CDT THU APR 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS
MORNING. AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY...DISTURBANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE DRY LINE
TO OUR WEST AND STATIONARY WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THESE TWO
SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INTO THE REGION. THIS CONVECTION WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING
AND ON THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS POSSIBLE DUE TO SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING.