Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
300 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2003

WILL BE UPDATING ZONES FOR THE NEW SVR TSTM WATCH (#464) WHICH WILL
COVER AREAS ACROSS SE TX SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH.

FINALLY SEEING SOME RAIN AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SE TX. UNFORTUNATELY...IT COMES WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND POPS
FOR TONIGHT. BELIEVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AREAWIDE AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS SE TX. AN IMPRESSIVE
CLUSTER OF STORMS IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AUSTIN AREA AND IS
MOVING SE...WHICH IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS
INDICATIVE OF THE STORM MOTION WE WILL LIKELY SEE LATER THIS
EVENING...MEANING DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD REACH THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING.
DUE TO CONFIDENCE ISSUES WILL TAPER POPS FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH
FOR THE 1ST PERIOD.

FOR TOMORROW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...ISSUES INCLUDE: FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATION...POPS...AND SVR TSTMS ON TUE. HAVE DECIDED TO
INCLUDE LOW SCT POPS FOR DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THU AND SLIGHT CHC
POPS OVERNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY FLATTEN TONIGHT AROUND
NORTHERN EDGE OF SE TX AND BECOME STATIONARY. THIS IS FOLLOWING THE
ETA SOLN. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SCT AFT/EVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A NUMBER OF WEAK
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE WILL PERIODICALLY
AID WITH LIFT. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW.
THIS...COUPLED WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE CWA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SE TX. AT THIS POINT SVR THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL. SO ALTHOUGH
POSSIBLE...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE ZONE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

FLOW BECOMES SW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...A BETTER CHC
OF RAIN WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS SE TX. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS FOR FRI/SAT PERIOD AS WELL AS SLIGHT CHC FOR
SUN/MON.

33/40

.HGX...SVR TSTM WATCH #462 NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH 6 PM CDT.

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 072/092 071 090 071 632
IAH BB 075/093 074 091 072 532
GLS BB 079/088 079 087 078 432

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-031200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
930 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.