Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2003

...INCREASING THREAT OF SOME FLOODING THIS EARLY MORNING ACROSS
COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE STRONG CONVERGENCE EXISTS.
VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.50
INCHES) IS LEADING TO SOME HEFTY RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THESE AREAS WITH ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO BUILD FURTHER INLAND MAINLY
EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE HOUSTON AREA. SIGNIFICANT TRAINING HAS
ALSO BEEN OCCURING ACROSS COASTAL MATAGORDA AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES...
AND IT APPEARS THAT THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS GALVESTON AND HARRIS COUNTIES. THE HARDEST
HIT AREAS YESTERDAY...CHAMBERS AND LIBERTY COUNTIES...MAY SOON SEE
SOME MORE RAIN. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW COOLING CLOUD TOPS EXPANDING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RADAR LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION EXTENING
ALL THE WAY DOWN THE TEXAS COAST TO EAST OF BAFFIN BAY. FLOOD THREAT
IS SIGNIFICANT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
GOING ON RIGHT NOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE HOUSTON AREA...BELIEVE THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST LATER THIS MORNING AND ON INTO
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF DAYTIME HEATING CAN ESTABLISH ITSELF.
RAINFALL TOTALS COULD AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4 TO 6
INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE DAY COMES TO AN END.

DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR PERIODS OF MORE RAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ONCE AGAIN...HARD TO PINPOINT
EXACTLY WHERE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. WILL LET THE DAY CREW
TRY TO FIGURE THAT ONE OUT. GOOD NEWS IS THAT MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO AGREE ON A STRONG ENOUGH EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DRY
OUT OUR AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL GO AHEAD AND TAKE THE
RAIN OUT OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND CALL FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING
LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS COULD ACTUALLY BE OUR FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE
UPCOMING FALL SEASON. HELLO SEPTEMBER

THANKS AGAIN TO LCH FOR COORDINATION CALL.

42/46/34

.HGX...FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY.
       SCEC 00-60 NM WATERS.

PRELIMS...
CLL TT 084/072 089/072 091 656
IAH TT 085/074 090/073 091 856
GLS TT 086/078 088/079 088 956
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.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (144 AM CDT)...
HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH BACK DOWN TO THE
COAST DUE TO THE CURRENT FLARE UP (SEE FFAHGX). SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR UPPER TEXAS COASTAL COUNTIES RECEIVED BETWEEN 4 AND 12
INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE A WHOLE LOT MORE TO
LEAD TO FLOODING. THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THANKS LCH FOR COORDINATION.  42/46
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.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (114 AM CDT)...
DID A ZONE UPDATE TO RAISE COASTAL COUNTY POPS AND MAKE A COUPLE
OTHER 1ST PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS. MONITORING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FAST
STORM MOTION IS KEEPING RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR ON THE LIGHT SIDE...
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF SIGNIFICANT TRAINING DEVELOPS. MAY NEED TO
RECONFIGURE THE FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST IF THESE
STORMS PERSIST OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
UPDATE WAS ALSO MADE.   42/46

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
613 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2003

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS A VERY MOIST
FLOW OFF THE GULF PERSISTS. TRAINING OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
LAKE LIVINGSTON TO NEW CANEY TO HOUSTON TO RICHMOND TO WHARTON TO
CORDELE. THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THE
STRONGEST TRAINING DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION. PREPAREDNESS PLANS SHOULD BE IMPLEMENTED.