Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
920 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2003

NUMEROUS TSRA DEVELOPING OVER SW ZONES THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD TOPS
COOLING ON IR IMAGERY. GOES SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING INDICATE PWS OF
2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES EXTENDING FROM CWA WELL SOUTH TO CORPUS
CHRISTI...ALICE...AND MONTERREY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CAPPING
AND VERY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WITH JUST ENOUGH HEATING TAKING
PLACE...EXPECT TSRA TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MAINLY WEST OF I-45.
EXPECT SLOWER STORM MOVEMENT TODAY AND WITH GROUND ALREADY SATURATED
WILL TAKE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN TO CAUSE FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP FFA IN PLACE AND BUMP UP POPS WRN HALF OF THE
AREA FOR TODAY. ACTIVITY APPEARS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT.

MARINE...TIDES ARE STILL RUNNING AT 2 TO 3 FEET (1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL) BUT WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER BAYS
AND 00 TO 20 NM WATERS TO AN SCEC WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 15 TO
20 KNOT RANGE. FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WILL KEEP SCA WITH SEAS
STILL RUNNING 7 TO 9 FEET.

35/42

.HGX...FLOOD WATCH SE TX ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
       SCEC BAYS AND 00 TO 20 NM HI ISLAND TO MATAGORDA (WINDS).
       SCA 00 TO 60 NM HI ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA (FOR SEAS).

PRELIMS...
CLL TB 090/074 095/074 096 532
IAH TB 088/075 093/075 094 632
GLS TB 087/079 088/079 090 633 SW ZONES 733

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING SE TX THIS MORNING
SHOWS CLAUDETTE MOVING AWAY FROM LRD AND COT...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE SYSTEM ACROSS BYY AND LBX...AND A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF SE TX.  THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL HELP CLAUDETTE
CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT.  FORECAST ITEMS OF NOTE INCLUDE THE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE SOON-TO-BE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY...THEN
THE EFFECTS OF THE EASTERLIES AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH PRESSURE.

GPS AND ACARS/MAPS PW/S AT THIS TIME INDICATE A DRIER ATMOSPHERE THAN
THE 00Z CRP AND LCH SOUNDINGS.  CURRENT RADAR SUGGESTS THAT SOME RAIN
BANDS WERE FORMING OFF MATAGORDA AND JACKSON COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER
FORMING WELL OFFSHORE OF CHAMBERS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES.  WILL GO
WITH 50 PERCENT POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND LESS...BUT STILL
IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY...ELSEWHERE.  ALSO...THE WATER VAPOR
SUGGESTS KEEPING MORE CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR TODAY.  FOR THE LATTER
PERIODS...THE GFS SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE JET MOVING
AROUND THE HIGH ON FRIDAY WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER SE TX...
THOUGH THE ETA INDICATES A STRONGER RIDGE.  BOTH MODELS INDICATE
LESSOR POPS FOR SATURDAY.  WILL KEEP THE CURRENT POPS IN PLACE AFTER
SATURDAY.

FOR THE MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH THAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF WATERS.  EXPECT
THESE TO SLOWLY RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...THE SECOND PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS.

PL-40
45

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-171100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
705 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WILL AFFECT
THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND MAY PRODUCE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.