Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2003

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE GSP CWA IS FAIRLY LIMITED ATTM. TO THE
WEST...THERE IS GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY OF TN UNDER
THE H5 VORT IN AN AREA THAT HAS HAD MORE SUN AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES. TO THE EAST...CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO UNZIP ALONG A
THERMAL GRADIENT...JUST EAST OF ENTRANCE REGION INDUCED MID CLOUD
DECK WHICH HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR NC
PIEDMONT ZONES DURING THE DAY.

LINE OF DRYING EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO ENTER
REGION THAT THE MODELS ADVERTISED. PW THIS MORNING AT GSO WAS 2.11
INCHES...WHILE IT WAS AROUND 1.5 INCHES AT BNA. APPEARS NOW THAT
BEST FORCING WL STALL JUST E OF THE CWA...IN THE H3 JET ENTRANCE
REGION. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK UPSLOPE/LEE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES...AND
AS THE H5 WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING...THERE SHOULD BE
GOOD COVERAGE. HAVE GONE LIKELY POPS IN ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA...AND CHANCE WEST...W/POPS LOWERING LATER TNGT. SO...WL NOT
ISSUE ANY KIND OF FFA ATTM...THOUGH WL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE LEE SLOPES LATER THIS EVENING AS UPSLOPE IS PROGGED TO GET
BETTER AFTER 00 UTC.

HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR SAT. LIKE THE MID
SHIFT/S AFTN DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE. W/CONSIDERABLY LESS CLOUD COVER
TMRW (AFTER MORNING STRATUS)...WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER DESTABILIZATION
AND MORE TYPICAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT WHICH
THEN DRIFTS INTO THE LEE. PW/S ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER MOST OF THE
DAY TMRW...BUT THEY WL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN.

LATE SAT NGHT MCS REMNANTS SHOULD AFFECT THE WRN ZONES. MRX
INCREASES THEIR POPS TO LIKELY LATE...AND WE MATCH UP WELL IN THIS
REGARD. FLOW IS ORIENTED SUCH THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TOO
FAR E OF THE MTS...THOUGH ACTIVITY MAY POP ALONG THE LEE SLOPES.

LONG WAVE SHARPENS CONSIDERABLY ON SUNDAY...PUTTING US IN A
DEEP...WET SWLY FLOW. GOOD SHEAR AND PLENTY OF MINOR WAVES SWINGING
THROUGH THE TROF. IT IS ANYBODY/S GUESS AS TO EXACTLY WHERE MINOR
WAVES WL BE CONSIDERING MCV POTENTIAL W/THIS PATTERN...SO HAVE KEPT
POPS AT 50 PERCENT SUN AND SUN NGHT.

ON MONDAY THE LONG WAVE CONTINUES TO TRUNDLE SLOWLY TO THE SE. SHEAR
IS STRONGER...SO WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WL BE HIGHER...HOPEFULLY
PCPN WL MOVE A LITTLE FASTER. CONSIDERED ISSUING AN ESF FOR SUN/MON
HEAVY RAIN THREAT...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW.

FCSTID =   14
GSP   69  86  69  86 /  50  50  50  40
AND   70  87  70  87 /  40  40  40  40
CLT   70  86  70  86 /  60  40  40  40
HKY   68  85  68  84 /  50  40  40  40
AVL   65  82  65  81 /  40  40  40  50

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MCAVOY

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-011200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
555 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FURTHER DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATE TODAY CAN BE FOUND IN THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...SPSGSP...ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IF FLOODING DEVELOPS LATER TODAY.

HG