Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

July 5, 2003Buncombe County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 5, 2003, 3:06 PM EDT for Buncombe County, North Carolina. It was in force for 54 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 5, 2003, 3:06 PM EDT (19:06 UTC)
Expired: Jul 5, 2003, 4:00 PM EDT
In force: 54 min
Issued by: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Buncombe County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 225 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 299 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -104 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1239 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 32 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 8 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

415 
WUUS52 KGSP 051906
SVRGSP
NCC021-052000-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
305 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 305 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES EAST OF ASHEVILLE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTH OF
  BLACK MOUNTAIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN IN RURAL AREAS OF
  SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3554 8241 3565 8229 3558 8229 3553 8218
          3551 8223 3547 8224 3550 8232 3548 8237

$$
MCAVOY

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 5, 2:16 PM EDT, 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 2:16 PM EDT, 50 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2003

AN INTERESTING AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NRN
ZONES...MID LEVELS (PER WATER VAPOR LOOP AND MORNING RAOBS) ARE
STILL VERY DRY AND THETA-E DELTAS ARE OVER 20 DEG. OVER THE SRN
ZONES...TROPICAL AIRMASS HAS WORKED IN WITH PW/S AROUND 1.90. ATTM
THE MTNS ARE LIGHTING UP W/CONVECTION AS THERE HAS BEEN MORE HEATING
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WL WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE
AND TSRA FIRING ALONG THE AIRMASS
DISCONTINUITY...SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING. MAY BE A CASE WHERE THE ZONES HAVE
LIKELY...BUT THE CCF WL HAVE LOWER POPS PER THE GREATER PRE 00 UTC
COVERAGE.

WEAK TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LAYER RH/S ARE
HIGHER SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FROM
THE WEST. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEM...THOUGH BOTH ETA AND GFS HAVE THE FEATURE. LOOKS LIKE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE MTNS TMRW...AND HAVE GONE A LIKELY POP WHICH LINES
UP WELL W/MRX. LEE TROF WL BE A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED SUN AND
MONDAY. W/TROPICAL AIR...MAY STILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUR FIRST
90 DEG DAY IN THE UPSTATE AND SRN PIEDMONT.

W/WLY FLOW AND WEAKER FORCING ON TUE...WE MAY DRY OUT ENUF TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION...OR AT LEAST KEEP COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY. WL CONTINUE THE TREND OF A SILENT 20 POP.

WED THROUGH SAT...PATTERN CHANGE INTO THE EXTENDED AS ALL MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES IN BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES
AND PLAINS. HGHT FALL OVER THE ERN STATES...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS THE THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR...AND I LIKED HPC/S MANUAL PROG...WITH FROPA SOMETIME THU
MORNING. WL CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS WED...THEN DRY OUT THE NC ZONES
THU WHILE HOLDING ON THE CHANCE POPS SRN ZONES. WL GO DRY FRI AND
SAT. A LITTLE CONCERN THAT THE LATEST GFS DOESN/T HAVE QUITE A MUCH
AMPLITUDE TO THE MIDDLE CONUS RIDGE. THIS MIGHT RESULT IN A LITTLE
LESS AMPLITUDE DOWNSTREAM.

FCSTID =   14
GSP   71  86  71  87 /  40  40  40  40
AND   71  86  71  88 /  50  40  40  40
CLT   71  87  71  88 /  30  40  40  40
HKY   70  86  70  87 /  30  40  40  40
AVL   66  82  66  83 /  50  60  60  50

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MCAVOY

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 5:42 AM EDT, 9 hours 24 minutes before

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-051145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...PLEASE SEE LASTEST SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSGSP) FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

NED

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 5, 2:04 PM EDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

100 PM     CASHIERS                  NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/05/03   JACKSON                        FEW TREES DOWN REPORTED
                                          BY COUNTY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

SBK

Local storm report, Jul 5, 2:36 PM EDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

200 PM     13 NW LENOIR              NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/05/03   CALDWELL                       COUNTY COMMS SUPERVISOR
                                          REPORTS SEVERAL TREES
                                          DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST
                                          PART OF THE COUNTY.

DEO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 5, 2:28 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	GSP	Avery, Caldwell, Jackson, McDowell, Yancey	3 hr
Jul 5, 2:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Caldwell	54 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.