Flash Flood Warning 60, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 051951
FFSGSP
NCC011-027-099-111-199-052115-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN 
AVERY-NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL-SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY-NORTHWESTERN 
MCDOWELL AND CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 350 PM...WEATHER RADAR SHOWED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARNING AREAS...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAD 
SHIFTED TO THE EAST. RAIN HAD ENDED IN SOUTHERN YANCEY AND NORTHWEST 
MCDOWELL COUNTY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IN THE REGION 
COULD BRING MORE RAIN TO THOSE TWO COUNTIES.  MODERATE RAIN 
CONTINUED IN CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE STILL 
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

RADAR ESTIMATED AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN IN 
NORTHWEST CALDWELL...AND SOUTHEAST AVERY COUNTY BETWEEN LINVILLE AND 
THE TOWN OF UPTON. A HAM RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED WILSONS CREEK WAS 
OUT OF ITS BANKS IN CALDWELL COUNTY...NEAR THE TOWN OF MORTIMER. 
THIS CREEK RUNS VERY CLOSE TO HIGHWAY 90. A FIRE DEPARTMENT WAS EN 
ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS FLOOD REPORT. SEVERAL CAMPGROUNDS ARE IN 
THE VICINITY OF WILSONS CREEK. DATA SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT RISES MAY 
HAVE OCCURRED ON OTHER CREEKS IN THE REGION...INCLUDING BLAIRS 
CREEK...MULBERRY CREEK JOHNS RIVER AND SALLY CREEK.

TO THE SOUTHWEST...RAINFALL OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WAS ESTIMATED ALONG THE 
SOUTH TOE RIVER BETWEEN MOUNT MITCHELL AND BUSICK...SOUTH TO THE 
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE PISGAH NATIONAL FOREST IN NORTHWEST MCDOWELL 
COUNTY. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED BUCK CREEK AT BANKFULL IN MCDOWELL 
COUNTY...JUST NORTH OF LAKE TAHOMA. ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL LIKELY 
BRING THE CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS.

RAINFALL OF CLOSE TO 4 INCHES WAS ESTIMATED IN CENTRAL JACKSON 
COUNTY...ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUCKASEGEE. RISES CAN BE 
EXPECTED ON THE TUCKASEGEE RIVER AT TUCKASEGEE...AND FLOODING OF 
SMALLER TRIBUTARIES IS LIKELY.

DO NOT BECOME A FATALITY DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS...THE ROAD COULD
BE WASHED OUT FROM THE FLOW OF THE WATER...AND YOUR CAR COULD BE
SWEPT AWAY BY THE SWIFTLY MOVING WATER.

PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA...ESPECIALLY CAMPERS...SHOULD MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND NOW...DO NOT DELAY. WATER MAY RISE TOO QUICKLY FOR YOU
TO GET OUT OF DANGER LATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA 
OUTLET...FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$
BURRUS

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 052116
FFSGSP
NCC011-027-099-111-199-052215-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN 
AVERY-NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL-SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY-NORTHWESTERN 
MCDOWELL AND CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES EXPIRED AT 515 PM...

AT 515 PM...WEATHER RADAR SHOWED THAT HEAVY RAIN HAD MOVED OUT OF 
THE AREAS COVERED BY THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING. THE ONLY REPORT OF 
FLOODING CAME FROM NORTHWEST CALDWELL COUNTY...WHERE A TRIBUTARY OF 
WILSON CREEK CAME OUT OF ITS BANKS NEAR MORTIMER. SOME RISES ON  
DOWNSTREAM CREEKS AND STREAMS COULD OCCUR LATER AS WATER FILTERS 
THROUGH STREAM BASINS. HOWEVER...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ALLOWED 
TO EXPIRE.

A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN YANCEY COUNTY MAY WORK OVER SOUTHEAST 
YANCEY...AND WESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS WILL BE ALL RUNOFF...RESULTING IN 
FURTHER RISES ON STREAMS AND CREEKS. ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY 
BE REQUIRED LATER...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE SHOWERS LINGER OVER 
THE REGION.

DO NOT BECOME A FATALITY DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS...THE ROAD COULD
BE WASHED OUT FROM THE FLOW OF THE WATER...AND YOUR CAR COULD BE
SWEPT AWAY BY THE SWIFTLY MOVING WATER.

PEOPLE IN THE WARNED AREA...ESPECIALLY CAMPERS...SHOULD MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND NOW...DO NOT DELAY. WATER MAY RISE TOO QUICKLY FOR YOU
TO GET OUT OF DANGER LATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA 
OUTLET...FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$
BURRUS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2003

AN INTERESTING AIRMASS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NRN
ZONES...MID LEVELS (PER WATER VAPOR LOOP AND MORNING RAOBS) ARE
STILL VERY DRY AND THETA-E DELTAS ARE OVER 20 DEG. OVER THE SRN
ZONES...TROPICAL AIRMASS HAS WORKED IN WITH PW/S AROUND 1.90. ATTM
THE MTNS ARE LIGHTING UP W/CONVECTION AS THERE HAS BEEN MORE HEATING
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WL WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE
AND TSRA FIRING ALONG THE AIRMASS
DISCONTINUITY...SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING. MAY BE A CASE WHERE THE ZONES HAVE
LIKELY...BUT THE CCF WL HAVE LOWER POPS PER THE GREATER PRE 00 UTC
COVERAGE.

WEAK TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LAYER RH/S ARE
HIGHER SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FROM
THE WEST. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEM...THOUGH BOTH ETA AND GFS HAVE THE FEATURE. LOOKS LIKE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE MTNS TMRW...AND HAVE GONE A LIKELY POP WHICH LINES
UP WELL W/MRX. LEE TROF WL BE A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED SUN AND
MONDAY. W/TROPICAL AIR...MAY STILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUR FIRST
90 DEG DAY IN THE UPSTATE AND SRN PIEDMONT.

W/WLY FLOW AND WEAKER FORCING ON TUE...WE MAY DRY OUT ENUF TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION...OR AT LEAST KEEP COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY. WL CONTINUE THE TREND OF A SILENT 20 POP.

WED THROUGH SAT...PATTERN CHANGE INTO THE EXTENDED AS ALL MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES IN BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES
AND PLAINS. HGHT FALL OVER THE ERN STATES...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS THE THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
DRIER AIR...AND I LIKED HPC/S MANUAL PROG...WITH FROPA SOMETIME THU
MORNING. WL CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS WED...THEN DRY OUT THE NC ZONES
THU WHILE HOLDING ON THE CHANCE POPS SRN ZONES. WL GO DRY FRI AND
SAT. A LITTLE CONCERN THAT THE LATEST GFS DOESN/T HAVE QUITE A MUCH
AMPLITUDE TO THE MIDDLE CONUS RIDGE. THIS MIGHT RESULT IN A LITTLE
LESS AMPLITUDE DOWNSTREAM.

FCSTID =   14
GSP   71  86  71  87 /  40  40  40  40
AND   71  86  71  88 /  50  40  40  40
CLT   71  87  71  88 /  30  40  40  40
HKY   70  86  70  87 /  30  40  40  40
AVL   66  82  66  83 /  50  60  60  50

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

MCAVOY

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-051145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...PLEASE SEE LASTEST SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSGSP) FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
204 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

100 PM     CASHIERS                  NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/05/03   JACKSON                        FEW TREES DOWN REPORTED
                                          BY COUNTY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

SBK