Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

88D SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF SH AND TS ACROSS THE CAROLINA MTNS AND
FT HILLS. LAPS SHOWS CAPES GENERALLY AROUND 2K AND WITH PW >1.5 AND
STORM MOTIONS ONLY 15 MPH ISOLATED EXCESSIVE WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE ALREADY WITNESSED A COUPLE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING A STRONG CORE ALOFT...PROMPTING WARNINGS FOR EXPECTED WET
MICROBURST.

SFC FRONT CURRENTLY LYING STATIONARY ALONG KY AND THE VIRGINIAS.
WILL AGAIN EXPECT A DIURNAL DECLINE IN PRECIP TONIGHT AS FORCING
REMAINS LIMITED. ETA AND GFS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY AND RIDGES DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WILL EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO DEVELOP WITHIN WEAK SFC
LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN. WILL
INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL LIMIT TO CHC. MONDAY NIGHT
WEDGE DEVELOPS TO ITS PRIME AND WILL AND FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE SAVANNAH. BOTH MODELS GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF
OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN GOING LIKELY POPS. CAD WILL RETREAT AND
MODIFY DURING THE DAY TUES...AND WILL CLICK POPS BACK TO CHC.
WEDNESDAY...FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTH...BUT WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE FA.
WITH A VERY MOST AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL HOLD ONTO POPS FOR SH/TS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS AS PATTERN IS SLOW TO
CHANGE. HPC QPF FORECASTS STILL PAINT THE AREA WITH SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH WED. WILL UPDATE ESF.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWS VORTEX START TO DESCEND OUT OF QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY AND BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT...WITH IMPRESSIVE MID-JUNE CAA...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT AND WITH BL RECOVERING FROM CAD LIS BECOME BARELY
NEGATIVE. WILL KEEP POPS IN UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND WILL REDUCE TO SCHC
THROUGH SUNRISE. WITH CONTINENTAL HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL FORECAST
ON SCHC OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS CONTINUES TO PAINT SOME QPF OVER THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WILL VORT LOBES AS THE TROF AMPS OF THE COAST.
HOWEVER...WILL SIDE WITH THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS AND WILL TRUST THAT
NW FLOW WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MEX/HPC
TEMP GUIDANCE AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AROUND CLIMO.

FCSTID = 16
GSP 069 086 069 080 / 5554
AND 068 087 070 083 / 5444
CLT 068 085 067 077 / 4665
HKY 067 081 066 075 / 5665
AVL 064 080 064 076 / 5555

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

NED

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-151145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA REMAINS VERY MOIST...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP IN FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS HAPPENS...THE
THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL INCREASE. OUR OFFICE WILL ISSUE A
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CAESPSGSP LATER TODAY IF IT APPEARS THAT
THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH...CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. SEE OUR PRODUCT CAEESFGSP FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY...MAY
BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

MCAVOY