Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

June 15, 2003Caldwell County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Jun 15, 2003, 4:30 PM EDT for Caldwell County, North Carolina. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 15, 2003, 4:30 PM EDT (20:30 UTC)
Expired: Jun 15, 2003, 6:30 PM EDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area: Whole counties

County Caldwell County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 268 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -23 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 600 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 25 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 39 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS52 KGSP 152033
FFWGSP
NCC027-152230-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS EXTENDED 
THE 

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 430 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ADDITIONAL
  THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTHERN
  CALDWELL COUNTY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
  THE AREA ALREADY HIT HARD BY GREATER THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
  PAST 2 TO 3 HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER
  THE SAME LOCATION FROM PATTERSON TO KINGS CREEK MAY PRODUCE AN
  ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF RAIN.

* FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING ON GRANDIN ROAD AT KINGS CREEK.
  ADDITIONAL STREAM FLOODING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...WHICH MAY BECOME
  WIDESPREAD AND SERIOUS BY 6 PM. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CAN
  BE EXPECTED FROM BUFFALO CREEK TO KINGS CREEK AND FROM ROUTE 268
  TO ROUTE 18 IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. EVEN MODERN SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES CANNOT BE 
SAFELY DRIVEN THROUGH FLOOD WATERS.

WHEN DRIVING ALONG ROADS WHERE THE TERRAIN IS STEEP OR ROCKY...REMAIN
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ROCK OR MUD SLIDES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN.
$$
HG

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 152148
FFSGSP
NCC027-152230-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 630 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN 
CALDWELL COUNTY...

AT 545 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED ONLY SCATTERED 
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM LENOIR TO KINGS CREEK. A LINE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM BANNER ELK TO NORTH WILKESBORO TO THE 
NORTH OF THE AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS  
FALLEN OVER THE AREA DURING THE PAST FOUR HOURS. FLOODING CONTINUES 
ALONG GRANDIN ROAD AT KINGS CREEK...AND A MUDSLIDE HAS BEEN REPORTED 
ALONG ROUTE 268.

IF NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...THE 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 630 PM EDT. 
UNTIL THAT TIME...USE CAUTION IF YOU MUST DRIVE IN THE AFFECTED 
AREA. HIGH WATER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST NEAR PATTERSON...GRANDIN...AND 
KINGS CREEK.

DO NOT BECOME A FATALITY DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS...THE ROAD COULD
BE WASHED OUT FROM THE FLOW OF THE WATER...AND YOUR CAR COULD BE
SWEPT AWAY BY THE SWIFTLY MOVING WATER.
$$
HG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jun 15, 3:10 PM EDT, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 15, 3:10 PM EDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

88D SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF SH AND TS ACROSS THE CAROLINA MTNS AND
FT HILLS. LAPS SHOWS CAPES GENERALLY AROUND 2K AND WITH PW >1.5 AND
STORM MOTIONS ONLY 15 MPH ISOLATED EXCESSIVE WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE ALREADY WITNESSED A COUPLE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING A STRONG CORE ALOFT...PROMPTING WARNINGS FOR EXPECTED WET
MICROBURST.

SFC FRONT CURRENTLY LYING STATIONARY ALONG KY AND THE VIRGINIAS.
WILL AGAIN EXPECT A DIURNAL DECLINE IN PRECIP TONIGHT AS FORCING
REMAINS LIMITED. ETA AND GFS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY AND RIDGES DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WILL EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO DEVELOP WITHIN WEAK SFC
LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EASTERN TN. WILL
INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL LIMIT TO CHC. MONDAY NIGHT
WEDGE DEVELOPS TO ITS PRIME AND WILL AND FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE SAVANNAH. BOTH MODELS GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF
OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN GOING LIKELY POPS. CAD WILL RETREAT AND
MODIFY DURING THE DAY TUES...AND WILL CLICK POPS BACK TO CHC.
WEDNESDAY...FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTH...BUT WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE FA.
WITH A VERY MOST AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL HOLD ONTO POPS FOR SH/TS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS AS PATTERN IS SLOW TO
CHANGE. HPC QPF FORECASTS STILL PAINT THE AREA WITH SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH WED. WILL UPDATE ESF.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWS VORTEX START TO DESCEND OUT OF QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY AND BECOMING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT...WITH IMPRESSIVE MID-JUNE CAA...WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT AND WITH BL RECOVERING FROM CAD LIS BECOME BARELY
NEGATIVE. WILL KEEP POPS IN UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND WILL REDUCE TO SCHC
THROUGH SUNRISE. WITH CONTINENTAL HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL FORECAST
ON SCHC OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS CONTINUES TO PAINT SOME QPF OVER THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WILL VORT LOBES AS THE TROF AMPS OF THE COAST.
HOWEVER...WILL SIDE WITH THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS AND WILL TRUST THAT
NW FLOW WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MEX/HPC
TEMP GUIDANCE AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AROUND CLIMO.

FCSTID = 16
GSP 069 086 069 080 / 5554
AND 068 087 070 083 / 5444
CLT 068 085 067 077 / 4665
HKY 067 081 066 075 / 5665
AVL 064 080 064 076 / 5555

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

NED

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 15, 6:00 AM EDT, 10 hours 30 minutes before

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-151145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA REMAINS VERY MOIST...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP IN FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS HAPPENS...THE
THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL INCREASE. OUR OFFICE WILL ISSUE A
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CAESPSGSP LATER TODAY IF IT APPEARS THAT
THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH...CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. SEE OUR PRODUCT CAEESFGSP FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS...PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY...MAY
BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

MCAVOY

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 15, 3:44 PM EDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

230 PM     WEAVERVILLE               NC   WIND DAMAGE
06/15/03   BUNCOMBE                       COUNTY 911 CENTER REPORTS
                                          A TREE AND POWER LINES
                                          BLOWN DOWN.

HG

Local storm report, Jun 15, 4:01 PM EDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
401 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

340 PM     10 NE LENOIR              NC   FLASH FLOOD
06/15/03   CALDWELL                       FLOODING REPORTED ON
                                          HIGHWAY 268 WHERE KINGS
                                          CREEK FLOWS UNDER THE
                                          HIGHWAY BY THE COUNTY
                                          COMMS CENTER.

DEO

Local storm report, Jun 15, 4:01 PM EDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
401 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

340 PM     10 NE LENOIR              NC   FLASH FLOOD
06/15/03   CALDWELL                       FLOODING REPORTED ON
                                          GRANDIN ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY
                                          268 WHERE KINGS CREEK IS
                                          LOCATED. REPORTED BY THE
                                          COUNTY COMMS CENTER.

DEO

Local storm report, Jun 15, 4:10 PM EDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
410 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

340 PM     RUTHERFORDTON             NC   WIND DAMAGE
06/15/03   RUTHERFORD                     COUNTY 911 REPORTS TREES
                                          AND POWER LINES DOWN.

HG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 15, 2:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Buncombe	61 min
Jun 15, 2:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Caldwell	37 min
Jun 15, 2:54 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	GSP	Caldwell	96 min
Jun 15, 3:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Rutherford	41 min
Jun 15, 4:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Cleveland	61 min
Jun 15, 4:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Gaston	52 min
Jun 15, 5:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Rowan	50 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.