Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
459 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

UPDATED TO KEEP THE WATCH UP FOR MOST OF THE COUNTIES
THAT ARE UNDER THE WATCH...MAINLY DUE TO THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE STORMS NR BTL.

WE ARE DRAWING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
BEH SHOWING FALLING DEWPOINTS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
THEN FOR THE REST OF  TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW PULLS
THROUGH...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK THROUGH WI...SO IT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THEN FOR MONDAY...CLOUDS SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...WHEN MORE STABLE AIR FROM LAKE
MI PUSHES IN AND DIMINISHES ANY CU AROUND.  MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD TOP OUT MAINLY AROUND 70.

INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN FOR
WEDNESDAY...IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE RETURN
LIKELY TO LEAD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOME PORTIONS
OF LOWER MI.  THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE GFS POINTING
FURTHER NORTH AND FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM AND THE ETA
AIMING IT RIGHT AT SOUTHWEST LOWER MI.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING.  THE
REGION IS DRY SO AM NOT PLANNING ON AN ESF.

BY 12Z WED MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER.  THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.  BASICALLY MORE TYPICAL WEATHER FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

MJS

.GRR...NONE.

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-091000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1216 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE...THIS AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS FRONT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER...AND
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH.  THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS BETWEEN 1 AND 6 PM.  THE ESTIMATED STORM
MOTION IS NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATER IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN THE RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND DAMAGE
WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAVE BEEN
DELAYED TO OVER THE WEEKEND.  AT THAT POINT THE WARM AIR COMING
NORTH FOR THE GULF WILL CONVERGE ON COOLER AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM
CANADA.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR LOWER MICHIGAN.
THUS THE CHANCE FOR MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS YET AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU
CAN ALSO OBTAIN THE LATEST FORECAST ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEB SITE HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRR/ (ALL LOWER CASE)

MJS

MIZ038>040-044>046-051-052-056>059-064>067-071>074-082300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
126 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE
UNTIL 700 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     LAKE AND NEWAYGO

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     OSCEOLA...CLARE...ISABELLA...MECOSTA...MONTCALM AND GRATIOT

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     KENT...ALLEGAN...BARRY...KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN AND OTTAWA

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     IONIA...CLINTON...INGHAM...EATON...JACKSON AND CALHOUN

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH AND/OR HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. IF
YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0140 PM    ALLEGAN                   MI   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/08/03   ALLEGAN                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC

MIZ038-039-044-045-056-057-064-065-071-072-090145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
344 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     LAKE AND NEWAYGO

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     OSCEOLA AND MECOSTA

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     KENT...ALLEGAN...BARRY...KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN AND OTTAWA

MJS

MIZ051-058-082215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
514 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     MONTCALM

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     IONIA