Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1159 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

ONE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING
EAST OF BTL AND AMN.  BEHIND THIS...SKIES HAVE
SCATTERED OUT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING
...WITH LIFTED INDICES NOW LOWER THAN MINUS 4 DEG
C ACROSS NRN IN INTO THE BEH AREA.  THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WAS NOW OVER WI...AND MOVING EAST.  A SECOND LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
ERN LAKE MI AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON.  ILX 12Z SOUNDING WAS VERY
DRY ABOVE 900 MB AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UNDER
AN INCH.  THUS THE LINE OF STORMS THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BE NARROW.  WITH THE LOWERING WET BULB ZERO
VALUES AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...SOME LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MI.  WILL NEED MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.GRR...NONE.

MJS

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-091000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1216 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
COMBINATION OF SUNSHINE AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE...THIS AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS FRONT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER...AND
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH.  THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS BETWEEN 1 AND 6 PM.  THE ESTIMATED STORM
MOTION IS NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN LATER IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN THE RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND DAMAGE
WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAVE BEEN
DELAYED TO OVER THE WEEKEND.  AT THAT POINT THE WARM AIR COMING
NORTH FOR THE GULF WILL CONVERGE ON COOLER AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM
CANADA.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR LOWER MICHIGAN.
THUS THE CHANCE FOR MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS YET AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...FOR THE
LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. YOU
CAN ALSO OBTAIN THE LATEST FORECAST ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEB SITE HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRR/ (ALL LOWER CASE)

MJS

MIZ038>040-044>046-051-052-056>059-064>067-071>074-082300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
126 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE
UNTIL 700 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     LAKE AND NEWAYGO

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     OSCEOLA...CLARE...ISABELLA...MECOSTA...MONTCALM AND GRATIOT

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     KENT...ALLEGAN...BARRY...KALAMAZOO...VAN BUREN AND OTTAWA

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     IONIA...CLINTON...INGHAM...EATON...JACKSON AND CALHOUN

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH AND/OR HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. IF
YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

MJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0140 PM    ALLEGAN                   MI   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/08/03   ALLEGAN                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC