Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

HEAVY RAINFALL/SVR THREAT FOR TONIGHT...AND PRECIP TRENDS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

WV IMAGERY SHOWED THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER FAR NC MN...WITH A POTENT
VORT MOVG INTO FAR NW WI. AT THE SFC...A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDED
FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NC IA NEWD THROUGH SW AND EC WI. SCT TSTMS...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLD SVR HAIL/WIND WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTH OF GRB CWA. ANOTHER BATCH OF STG/SVR STORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER NC/NE WI...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING VORT.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FLOOD WATCH CAN BE CANCELLED FOR EC WI...WITH
MAIN HVY RAINFALL THREAT STAYING TO OUR SOUTH. CURRENT CONVECTION
SHOULD CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO SAG FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE LATE
AFT/EVG...KEEPING THE BEST CORE OF HVY RAINFALL OVER SC/SE WI. SOME
POCKETS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN THE CURRENT FLOOD
WATCH AREA THROUGH EALY EVG...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. ISOLD
SVR THREAT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA INTO THE EARLY EVG HOURS AS
THE UPPER TROF PIVOTS THROUGH N WI. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS EVG.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO THE AFFECT THE RGN INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG BLOCKING NOTED UPSTREAM OVER THE NE US. WILL
KEEP TSTMS IN THE FCST THROUGH MONDAY...AND SCT AFT SHOWERS FOR
TUES/WEDS...AND TRY FOR A DRY DAY ON THURS.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.

.GRB...NONE.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-011115-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
615 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINS. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE FLOODING RAINS WERE REPORTED
YESTERDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND THEN LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ECKBERG
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB