Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
415 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

DOPPLER ESTIMATES AND GROUND TRUTH SHOWED THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS WAUPACA...OUTAGAMIE...AND WINNEBAGO...CALUMET AND MANITOWOC
COUNTIES RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH A FEW
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER CALUMET AND WINNEBAGO COUNTIES. EARLY THIS
MORNING...KGRB RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOR TODAY...SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH THE
ETA SHOWING ANOTHER BOUNDARY DRAPED EASTWARD OVER THE STATE. ETA
MODEL AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS (NGM) INDICATED THAT CAPES RISE TO 1500
TO 3000 J/KG AND LIS DROP TO -3 C TO -5 C OVER THE CWA. 700MB FLOW
IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WIND SPEEDS ARE
LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IS 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THINK THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP TODAY WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. WILL MENTION THIS IN
ALL ZONE GROUPS. WITH YESTERDAYS HEAVY RAIN...THINK IT IS PRUDENT
TO POST A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS
THAT SAW THE HEAVY RAIN. ESPECIALLY SINCE THE ETA MODEL IS POINTING
TO ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
OVER THE CWA...BUT AT THIS TIME DID NOT MENTION TIMING DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT OR BELOW SEASONAL VALUES FOR
THE FIRST PART OF AUGUST.

.GRB...FLOOD WATCH WIZ031-037>040-045-048>050

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WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-011115-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
615 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINS. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE FLOODING RAINS WERE REPORTED
YESTERDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND THEN LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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