Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
207 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

MAIN CONCERN IS TSTMS THRU THE EVE AND THEN AGAIN LATE THURS

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER TROF PROGRESSING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WHILE AT THE SFC...THE PRE FRONTAL TROF WAS LOCATED
FROM WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SW NEB...AND COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THRU NEB PANHANDLE.  LATEST LAPS DATA INDICATES CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1500J/KG WITH WEAKENING CAP.  TSTMS ALREADY FIRING
ALONG BOUNDARY FM NR VTN TO BBW AND SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELD
EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARD MCCOOK.  SVR WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR CWA AS
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP...AND PRIMARY HAZARD IS HAIL/WIND.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CWA REMAINDER OF AFTN/EVE THEN
STORMS TO END BY MIDNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES EAST INTO EASTERN NEB/KS.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST THRU SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
REACH NORTHERN IOWA ON WED.  ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN SHLD REMAIN EAST OF
CWA...WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL SEE
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND APPROACH
THE CWA LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY.  MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE LIMITED POPS TO THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE CWA.  GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT OF LEAD WAVE
WITH SYSTEM THAN ETA...SO TRACK WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DRY WEATHER FORECAST THRU THE WEEKEND...THEN TSTM CHCS RETURN
MON/TUE AS NEXT BOUNDARY AND UPPER TROF APPROACH.

.GID...NONE.

FAY

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-141200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
145 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SANDHILL REGION OF NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS OF
BECOMING SEVERE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...AFFORDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
221 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0220 PM    10 W ORD                  NE   .75 INCH HAIL
05/13/03   VALLEY                         REPORTED BY SPOT
                                          WEATHER OBSERVER.