Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
226 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

LATEST WV SATL PIX REVEALING POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STATIONED OFF
THE WEST COAST INVOF RUSH OF PACIFIC SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ACROSS THE PLAINS...MODEST RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...UNORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WAS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF STATES PER LATEST PRECIP WATER PLOT.

LATEST SWODY1 FROM SPC KEEPS OUR CWA IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THRU 12Z/14 AS THE LATEST MODELS ADVERTISE A POTENT SHORT
WAVE TO PASS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS LATER THIS AFTER/EVENING...PROMPTING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN INVOF SW SD/NW NEB...WITH DEVELOPING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SD/NEB BORDER AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY AS PER MODEL BLYR MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH NEB WITH
UNORGANIZED CONVECTION FIRING BY LATE AFTERNOON. STEEP 700MB-500MB
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAIN THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE PLAINS WITH
LEFT OVER SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER POTENT SHORT
WAVE...BUT SHOW IT PASSING QUITE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SLGT POPS
PROBABLY MOST REASONABLE FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE POPS DAY 7 AS MODELS
ADVERTISE A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.

.GID...NONE.

DEE

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-141200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
145 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SANDHILL REGION OF NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS OF
BECOMING SEVERE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHING EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW RETURNING TO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...AFFORDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

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