Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Hastings, NE

May 8, 2003Osborne County, Kansas

NWS Hastings, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 8, 2003, 4:10 AM CDT for Osborne County, Kansas. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 8, 2003, 4:10 AM CDT (09:10 UTC)
Expired: May 8, 2003, 5:00 AM CDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS Hastings, NE
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Osborne County, KS

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1795 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 72 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 146 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 302 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

503 
WUUS53 KGID 080910
SVRGID
KSC141-081000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  OSBORNE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS

* UNTIL 500 AM CDT

* AT 410 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OSBORNE...OR ABOUT 45
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF PHILLIPSBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OSBORNE AT 435 AM CDT
  DOWNS AT 450 AM CDT

PEOPLE IN OSBORNE COUNTY SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

LAT...LON 3924 9898 3912 9882 3929 9850 3967 9851
$$

KISNER
NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 8, 1:30 AM CDT, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 8, 1:30 AM CDT, 2 hours 40 minutes before

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
130 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORMS

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED FLOW HAD BACKED SOUTHWEST WITH
BROAD UPPER TROF FM SASKATCHEWAN TO NR BAJA.  DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ALONG MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND SOUTHERN WY.  A LEAD SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTH THRU NEB
WITH TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.  H85 PLOT INDICATED ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH H85 DPS OF 15C.  LATEST H85
PROFILE PLOT SHOWS LLVL HAS INCREASED TO 50KTS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS.  EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF WAVE...INCREASING
MOISTURE...AHEAD OF SFC/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL CO
THRU WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.

TSTMS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS STRONGER WAVE LIFTS FM SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THRU CENTRAL KS BY 18Z AND
THE NEB/KS BORDER AROUND 00Z FRI.  DISTINCT DRY LINE PUSHES EAST
ACROSS KS DURING THE AFTN. SVR POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CWA TODAY WITH
HAIL PRIMARY HAZARD EARLY THIS MORNING FM ELEVATED CONVECTION...AND
THEN AGAIN THIS AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF WARM FNT/DRY LINE.  POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AND LATEST DY1 STILL OUTLINES SE CWA
IN MOD RISK...WITH SLGHT RISK FOR REMAINDER OF CWA.

TSTM CHCS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS SFC LOW AND UPPER SYSTEM LIFT
NORTH THRU IA.  FRIDAY WILL SEE A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THEN
TIMING OF APPROACHING UPPER TROF THIS WEEKEND STILL IN QUESTION WITH
GFS QUICKER THAN ETA.  GFS SUGGESTS TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF WARM
FNT POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN KS FRIDAY NIGHT AS LLVL JET INCREASES
TO 40-50KTS.  ATTM WILL MAINTAIN TSTM CHCS BUT ADJUST TIMING TO
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPPER TROF CROSSES THE PLAINS SATURDAY WITH PCPN CHCS
CONTINUING...THEN SYSTEM DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT.  AM NOT PLANNING
SIGNIFICANT CHGS TO EXTENDED ATTM...BUT TIMING OF UPPER TROF NEXT
WEEK (WED) STILL IN QUESTION WITH GFS THE FASTEST...UKMO
SIMILAR...BUT ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF KEEP SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST.

.GID...NONE.

FAY

Hazardous weather outlook, May 7, 11:30 AM CDT, 16 hours 40 minutes before

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND MOVE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER...THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL...AND AS MOISTURE IS
LACKING...MOST SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PENNY SIZE OR LESS.
.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...
AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE A DRY LINE PUSHES EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
SOME LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN HAZARD...
WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THEN
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS YET ANOTHER POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES NEAR SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS
HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.

LESS ACTIVE WEATHER IS FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...BUT WILL MORE
LIKELY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.  EMERGENCY
MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH SATURDAY.

10

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 8, 4:04 AM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
404 AM CDT THU MAY 08 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0358 AM    1 N GLADE                 KS    .75 INCH HAIL
05/08/03   PHILLIPS                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                           ENFORCEMENT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Hastings, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 8, 3:36 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Phillips, Rooks	39 min
May 8, 2:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Jewell, Mitchell	63 min
May 8, 6:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Phillips	55 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.