Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
243 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

FRONTAL POSITION AND SUBSEQUENT TSTM POTENTIAL THE MAIN CONCERN

PATTERN REMAINED ACTIVE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL WAVES EMBEDDED
IN FLOW...THE STRONGEST OF SUCH REMAINING FAR NORTH ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURED WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS WITH LBF AND DDC AT 15C AT H7 WITH 13C AT OAX/TOP.  18Z
SFC ANALYSIS PLACED COOL FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  PRESSURE RISES AVERAGED 1-2MB BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.  TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE 90S ACROSS THE CWA BUT
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AOA 100F AND SKIES STILL CLEAR AT THIS POINT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
CWA AFT MIDNIGHT.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION
ALTHOUGH A FEW TSTMS MAY REACH WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT
AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS.

BETTER CHCS FOR TSTMS OCCURS MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.  AGAIN...TSTMS FAVOR LOCATIONS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY IN
NEBRASKA...WITH LESSER CHCS ACROSS KS.  AFTER CONVECTION MONDAY
NIGHT...SFC BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
DEEPER SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN MT.  ETA DRIES THINGS OUT
FOR THE CWA AND STRENGTHENS MID LEVEL CAP.  MEANWHILE GFS MAINTAINS
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.  OVERALL AM LEANING TOWARD CONVECTION
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THIS TIME WITH POSSIBLY STORMS PROGRESSING
EAST/SOUTHEAST ON EASTERN EDGE OF CAP.  WILL NOT GO HIGHER THAN
SLGHT CHCS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.

MODELS DIVERGE IN FRONTAL POSITION...STRENGTH OF RIDGE AND CAP ON
WEDNESDAY.  HAVE MAINTAINED PERSISTENCE OF HOLDING STRONGER CAP WITH
DRY AND WARM FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND THE EXTENDED.

.GID...NONE.

FAY

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
740 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST TONIGHT MAINLY WEST
HIGHWAY 281 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BUT NONE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE
LEVELS.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.  A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW A FEW OF THESE
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.  THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH COVERAGE MORE NUMEROUS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER BOTH DAYS.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN EARLY THIS WEEK...THE HOT WEATHER RETURN AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES FLIRT WITH...OR TOP THE CENTURY MARK BY WEEKS END.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT WEST OF HIGHWAY 281
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

AWJ