Alert archive / Montana / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Glasgow, MT

March 17, 2003Roosevelt County, Montana

NWS Glasgow, MT issued this flash flood warning at Mar 17, 2003, 11:15 PM MST for Roosevelt County, Montana. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 17, 2003, 11:15 PM MST (06:15 UTC)
Expired: Mar 18, 2003, 5:15 AM MST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: NWS Glasgow, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Roosevelt County, MT

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 149 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 00:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1351 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -20 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -22 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KGGW 180615
FFWGGW
MTC085-181215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1115 PM MST MON MAR 17 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA

* UNTIL 515 AM MST

* AT 1110 PM MST(1206 AM CST)...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED   
  EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND DUE TO SNOWMELT WAS 
  CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. US 2 WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING FROM       
  BAINVILLE TO THE NORTH DAKOTA STATE LINE. 

CONTINUED RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF MANY 
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND 
COULEES...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 4855 10494 4817 10495 4810 10411 4838 10412
          4839 10466

.END

$$

VALONE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Glasgow, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Mar 17, 8:35 PM MST, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 17, 8:35 PM MST, 2 hours 40 minutes before

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
835 PM MST MON MAR 17 2003

.SHORT TERM...
A DIFFICULT SITUATION AT THE MOMENT AS OVERALL EVOLUTION OF STORM
HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. SURFACE PATTERN INDICATING A COL
AREA ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN...WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND HIGH
PRESSURE WEST AND EAST. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH...00Z ETA HAS THIS COL
AREA DISPLACED MUCH FARTHER WEST...SO THIS COULD HAVE DECENT IMPACT
ON ITS SOLUTION. PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY TIGHTENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWEST THRU THE
NIGHT. MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM OUR WAY FROM THE PLAINS.
OVERALL...SEE VERY LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES...BUT WILL
NEED TO SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT...WHICH MEANS LOWERING POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. WILL ALSO DITCH THE FREEZING RAIN AS
THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE IN THE CARDS AND NO REPORTS HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED.  VALONE

UNUSUAL OVERALL PATTERN STILL COMING TOGETHER ASSOCIATED WITH VERY
LARGE AND MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT ALL LEVELS COVERING MUCH
ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. EXTENSIVE AND IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE STILL
ORGANIZING AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. UPSIDE-DOWN N-S ORIENTED
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG MT-ND BORDER PRODUCING STEADY RAIN EASTERN
ZONES TODAY. FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GOOD LIFT CONTINUING AND
EXPANDING. LONG FETCH FROM SE MAY ALSO ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO TAP INTO
MORE MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN STATES. MODELS INDICATED THIS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AND THIS RARE PATTERN MAY PROLONG AND INCREASE
SNOW MORE THAN 6 TO 12 INCHES ALREADY INDICATED IN WINTER STORM
WARNING.  SIMONSEN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER CWA. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON FRIDAY GETS DIVERTED EITHER
NORTH OF CWA...OR TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON
SATURDAY AND REMAINS THAT WAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT SYSTEM DROPPING MAJORITY OF SNOW OVER EASTERN ZONES HAS
BECOME RATHER HIGH. WITH LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN HALF
OF CWA...WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES UP A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED. REST OF EXTENDED REMAINS THE SAME.   POHL

KGGW SSU 030/031 022/031 025/036 8289+720
     BBEE 020/041 024/045 025/051 027/045 8700000000

KGDV SSB 030/032 024/032 024/038 82+++940
     BBEE 019/038 023/043 024/048 026/045 8700000000

.KGGW...FLOOD WARNING TONIGHT FOR YELLOWSTONE RIVER IN DAWSON...
        PRAIRIE...AND RICHLAND COUNTIES.

        SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR BIG MUDDY AND
        ANTELOPE CREEKS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY.

        WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
        ZONES 017>020-022>027-061-062.

        WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDSAY NIGHT FOR
        ZONES 016-021-059>060.

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 17, 5:30 PM MST, 5 hours 45 minutes before

MTZ016>027-059>062-181300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
530 PM MST MON MAR 17 2003

.DAY ONE...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO GTFFFWGGW OR WGUS55 KGGW FOR DETAILS.

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER IN
RICHLAND... DAWSON AND PRAIRIE COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO
GTFFLSGGW OR WGUS85 KGGW FOR DETAILS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES.
PLEASE SEE GTFWSWGGW OR WWUS45 KGGW FOR DETAILS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM
COUNTIES TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO GTFWSWGGW OR WWUS45 KGGW FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM
COUNTIES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM
COUNTIES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VALONE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 17, 10:31 PM MST, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1031 PM MST MON MAR 17 2003

TIME(MST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0800 PM    BAINVILLE                 MT   FLASH FLOODS
03/17/03   ROOSEVELT                      FLOODING CLOSED US 2.

Local storm report, Mar 17, 10:34 PM MST, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1034 PM MST MON MAR 17 2003

TIME(MST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0800 PM    BAINVILLE                 MT   FLASH FLOODS
03/17/03   ROOSEVELT                      FLOODING CLOSED US 2.

GFF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Glasgow, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 17, 5:22 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	GGW	Roosevelt	6 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.