Alert archive / Montana / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Glasgow, MT

March 17, 2003Roosevelt County, Montana

NWS Glasgow, MT issued this flash flood warning at Mar 17, 2003, 5:22 PM MST for Roosevelt County, Montana. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 17, 2003, 5:22 PM MST (00:22 UTC)
Expired: Mar 17, 2003, 11:15 PM MST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: NWS Glasgow, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Roosevelt County, MT

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 148 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 146 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1351 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -20 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -22 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KGGW 180022
FFWGGW
MTC085-180615-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
522 PM MST MON MAR 17 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA

* UNTIL 1115 PM MST

* AT 515 PM MST(615 PM CST)...ROOSEVELT COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF 
EMERGENCY SERVICES COORDINATOR REPORTED FLOODING IN THE TOWN OF 
FROID...AND WATER RISING OVER HIGHWAY 2 NEAR BAINVILLE FROM RUNOVER 
OF THE SHEEP CREEK. STREAMS AND CREEKS IN EASTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY 
HAVE BEEN RISING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE COMBINATION 
OF SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND ONGOING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON 
AND EARLY EVENING. WITH CONTINUED RAIN THIS EVENING...MANY OF THESE 
STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.   

* A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL IN     
  THE WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH         
  SNOWMELT...WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. MUCH OF EASTERN ROOSEVELT    
  COUNTY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING. 
  
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 4855 10498 4818 10494 4809 10410 4837 10414
          4838 10467

.END

$$

VALONE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Glasgow, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Mar 17, 2:45 PM MST, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 17, 2:45 PM MST, 2 hours 37 minutes before

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
245 PM MST MON MAR 17 2003

UNUSUAL OVERALL PATTERN STILL COMING TOGETHER ASSOCIATED WITH VERY
LARGE AND MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT ALL LEVELS COVERING MUCH
ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. EXTENSIVE AND IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE STILL
ORGANIZING AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF. UPSIDE-DOWN N-S ORIENTED
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG MT-ND BORDER PRODUCING STEADY RAIN EASTERN
ZONES TODAY. TEMPERATURES 35-40 AND NO SNOW REPORTED YET. 1-1.5
INCHES ALREADY HAS FALLEN IN RICHLAND AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES. COLDER
CLOUD TOPS MOVING NORTH OUT OF AREA...AND RAIN NOT SPREADING WEST AT
TIME...BUT MODELS ALL BRING A LOT MORE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT CWA BY
MORNING. FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH GOOD LIFT CONTINUING AND
EXPANDING. LONG FETCH FROM SE MAY ALSO ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO TAP INTO
MORE MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN STATES. MODELS INDICATED THIS A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AND THIS RARE PATTERN MAY PROLONG AND INCREASE
SNOW MORE THAN 6 YO 12 INCHES ALREADY INDICATED IN WINTER STORM
WARNING.

EARLIER IDEA OF EASTERN COUNTIES RAIN TURNING TO SNOW BY EARLY
EVENING IN QUESTION. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS TO BE A
LOT OF FREEZING RAIN...AVN INDICATES ALL SNOW. BELIEVE THIS WILL
TAKE A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE TWO...ALSO KEEPING IN MIND NORMAL
BIASES. THIS MEANS FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL NEED MENTION FOR
TONIGHT IN EAST...BUT SHOULD BE SNOW TUE AND TUE NIGHT. POWERFUL
FORCING OF SYSTEM PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS INTO SW ND. DONT EXPECT
MUCH MORE WESTWARD PROGRESSION...WILL MENTION ONLY IN WIBAUX COUNTY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING
FORECAST...BUT WILL ADD A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN 3
ZONES. SIMONSEN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER CWA. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ON FRIDAY GETS DIVERTED EITHER
NORTH OF CWA...OR TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON
SATURDAY AND REMAINS THAT WAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT SYSTEM DROPPING MAJORITY OF SNOW OVER EASTERN ZONES HAS
BECOME RATHER HIGH. WITH LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN HALF
OF CWA...WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES UP A BIT IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
EXTENDED. REST OF EXTENDED REMAINS THE SAME.   POHL

KGGW SSU 029/031 022/031 025/036 8299+720
     BBEE 020/041 024/045 025/051 027/045 8700000000

KGDV SSB 029/032 024/032 024/038 82+++940
     BBEE 019/038 023/043 024/048 026/045 8700000000

.KGGW...FLOOD WARNING TONIGHT FOR YELLOWSTONE RIVER IN DAWSON...
        PRAIRIE...AND RICHLAND COUNTIES.

        SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR BIG MUDDY RIVER IN
        SHERIDAN COUNTY.

        WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
        ZONES 017>020-022>027-061-062.

        WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDSAY NIGHT FOR
        ZONES 016-021-059>060.

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 17, 5:55 AM MST, 11 hours 27 minutes before

MTZ016>027-059>062-181300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
555 AM MST MON MAR 17 2003

.DAY ONE...

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER IN
RICHLAND... DAWSON AND PRAIRIE COUNTIES FOR TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO
GTFFLSGGW OR WGUS85 KGGW FOR DETAILS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
MONTANA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES
WHERE THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SNOW. RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. PLEASE SEE
GTFWSWGGW OR WWUS45 KGGW FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM
COUNTIES WHERE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER.  SNOW WILL FALL
HEAVILY AT TIMES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...WITH A TOTAL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR. HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE IN THE
AFFECTED AREAS CAUSING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THOSE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHOOSE AN ALTERNATE
ROUTE... OR SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

BOGEL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Glasgow, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 17, 11:15 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	GGW	Roosevelt	6 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.