Severe Thunderstorm Warning 316, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1105 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003

TEMPERATURES ALREADY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING.  EXPECT NEAR 100 OVER WESTERN HALF BY THE END
OF THE DAY...WITH HEAT INDICES AREAWIDE 105-110. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
IN THE ZONES.  ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL BE DANGEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON...THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE REISSUED SINCE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL JUST BELOW 78 IN MOST
AREAS (ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED 78 DEGREE LOWS MAY OCCUR...
PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS).

RECENT MESOSCALE ANALYSES INDICATE A MESOLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DFW METROPLEX.  A BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW EAST
TO NEAR EMORY.  LAPS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR THIS LOW/BOUNDARY...AND
EXPANDING NORTHWARD WITH TIME.  IN ADDITION...A RETROGRESSIVE
LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS TRIGGERING CONVECTION EAST OF CWA AND A
LARGE WESTWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.  1200 UTC FORT WORTH SOUNDING INDICATES NEARLY
4000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100.  THUS...WE ARE EXPANDING THE AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
ENCOMPASS THE METROPLEX...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A SULPHUR SPRINGS...
WEATHERFORD... COMANCHE LINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL BE RAISED TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR ONGOING CONVECTION JUST EAST OF CWA MOVING WEST...AND THE
ANTICIPATION OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ALONG
BOUNDARIES.  GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND MODEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.  THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY.

ROBBINS

UPDATED NUMBERS...
DFW  100  76  99  75 /  20  20   0  10
ACT   99  76  98  75 /  20  20   0   0
PRX   98  74  96  75 /   0   0   0  30
DTO  100  74  98  75 /   0   0   0  20
TKI  100  75  97  75 /   0   0   0  30
DAL  100  76  99  75 /  20  20   0  10
TRL   98  74  98  75 /  20  20   0  30
CRS   98  74  97  74 /  20  20   0   0
TPL   99  76  98  75 /  20  20   0   0

.FWD...
TX...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-112100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1044 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003

...HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING... SOUTH AND EAST OF A SULPHUR
SPRINGS...WEATHERFORD...COMANCHE LINE. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE. THOSE
ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD DRINK PLENTY OF NON ALCOHOLIC
BEVERAGES AND TAKE FREQUENT REST BREAKS IN AIR CONDITIONED AREAS.
NIGHTTIME LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 70S PRECLUDES A HEAT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY...AND DEVELOP
INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  INSTABILITIES AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEARS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A JACKSBORO...
DENTON...SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A BOWIE...FORT
WORTH...CANTON LINE MONDAY. FINALLY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY...SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE...HILLSBORO
...PALESTINE LINE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES ALONG THE RED
RIVER.

ROBBINS