Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST THU JUL 17 2003

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST
WITH THE CENTER LOCATED IN COLORADO. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
WELL-DEVELOPED EASTERLY FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS EASTERLY FLOW ARE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM CLAUDETTE. THE 700 MB CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED IN SW AZ
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS MAINTAINING A SLOW WESTERLY TRACK. IN ITS
WAKE...AN ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO ARIZONA. GPSMET SHOWS THAT IPWV HAS INCREASED TO MORE THAN 1.5
INCHES IN SERN AZ AND ABOUT 1 INCH IN NRN AZ...WITH MUCH LOWER
VALUES NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE UP 5-10 DEGREES
FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...WIND FIELDS HAVE INCREASED IN MID LEVELS RESULTING IN
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SO THAT STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A GOOD
CLIP AND UNDERGO SOME MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION. FOR SAT/SUN...EXPECT A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE. FOR THE EXTENDED...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  DB

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON SAT   SUN     MON        TON SAT   SUN     MON
FLAGSTAFF        054/084 052/085 053/084      030 030 030 030 030 030
WINSLOW          067/097 066/098 065/095      030 020 020 020 020 020
PRESCOTT         065/092 063/093 063/090      030 020 020 030 020 030
PAGE             076/102 075/101 073/101      020 020 010 020 010 020
WINDOW ROCK      055/090 056/090 056/088      020 030 030 030 030 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 065/096 066/096 066/094      020 030 020 030 020 030
COTTONWOOD       073/103 071/104 071/101      030 020 010 020 010 020
GRAND CANYON     055/088 052/089 051/087      030 030 020 030 020 030
GREER            050/080 048/081 049/080      040 040 030 040 030 040
HEBER            055/089 053/090 054/089      040 030 020 040 020 040
JACOB LAKE       054/082 052/083 053/082      030 040 030 030 030 030
NAVAJO N.M.      059/090 060/090 060/088      020 030 020 030 020 030
PAYSON           066/097 064/098 064/095      040 030 010 020 010 020
SEDONA           071/101 069/102 069/099      030 030 020 030 020 030
SELIGMAN         064/095 062/096 062/093      030 030 020 020 020 020
SHOW LOW         062/090 060/091 061/090      030 030 020 030 020 030
ST. JOHNS        062/098 063/096 063/095      030 030 020 030 020 030
WUPATKI N.M.     070/099 069/100 068/097      030 020 020 030 020 030

AZZ004>018-037>040-190200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST FRI JUL 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HAS OCCURRED OVER THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.