Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SAT JUL 19 2003

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND THEN DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE NORTH.

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN HAMPERED BY
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS ALOFT ALONG WITH DRIER AIR MIXING IN
FROM ALOFT. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FIRE THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK INERTIAL STABILITY
IN THE NORTHWEST MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO LINGER THERE LONGEST.

WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DRY AIR
TO MIX INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO RETURN THE
AREA TO A LOW-GRADE MONSOON PATTERN. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
RETROGRESSION OF HIGH PRESSURE CELL INTO NEVADA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SWITCH THE STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO MOVE OFF THE RIM AND INTO YAVAPAI/GILA
COUNTIES. HAVE UPPED POPS SOUTH OF THE RIM FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
ANTICIPATION OF THIS. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME DISTURBANCE TO SWING
ACROSS THE STATE...MOST LIKELY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HAVE THE MOST
IMPACT ON OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS THEN MOVE THE HIGH BACK
INTO UTAH BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS
SHOULD MODERATE THE DRYING TREND...CONTINUING THE TREAT FOR LOW-GRADE
MONSOON CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND ALSO ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF EASTERLY WAVES OR THUNDERSTORM COMPEXES TO OUR SOUTH
TO ADD TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. STAUDENMAIER

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON SUN   MON     TUE        TON SUN   MON     TUE
FLAGSTAFF        054/086 055/085 052/083      030 030 030 030 030 040
WINSLOW          067/098 067/097 064/095      020 020 020 020 020 030
PRESCOTT         065/092 064/091 061/089      040 030 030 030 020 030
PAGE             076/102 075/101 073/099      030 010 000 010 000 020
WINDOW ROCK      055/091 056/089 053/087      030 030 030 030 030 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 067/097 068/095 065/093      030 020 020 020 020 030
COTTONWOOD       070/103 071/102 069/100      030 030 030 030 020 020
GRAND CANYON     053/090 054/089 051/087      040 030 020 030 020 030
GREER            050/082 051/081 048/079      040 040 040 040 040 040
HEBER            055/091 056/090 053/088      040 040 030 040 030 030
JACOB LAKE       054/084 055/083 052/081      040 030 030 030 030 040
NAVAJO N.M.      059/091 060/089 057/087      030 030 020 030 020 030
PAYSON           063/096 063/095 061/094      020 030 030 030 030 020
SEDONA           069/101 068/100 067/098      030 030 030 030 020 030
SELIGMAN         064/095 063/094 060/092      040 020 020 020 020 030
SHOW LOW         059/092 060/091 060/089      040 040 030 040 030 030
ST. JOHNS        065/096 065/095 062/093      030 030 030 030 030 030
WUPATKI N.M.     070/100 070/099 067/097      030 030 020 030 020 030

AZZ004>018-037>040-200200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SAT JUL 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND BY FORMER HURRICANE CLAUDETTE WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
LATE MORNING AND THEN MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS AND BASINS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A
CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.