Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 6, 2003, 4:39 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 6, 2003, 4:39 PM MST (23:39 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 6, 2003, 5:30 PM MST
- In force
- 51 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 81 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 95 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -89 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1200 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 16 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 17 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS55 KFGZ 062339 SVRFGZ AZC025-070030- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 438 PM MST SAT SEP 6 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CHINO VALLEY AND PAULDEN * UNTIL 530 PM MST * AT 435 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAULDEN...OR ABOUT 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHINO VALLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... OVER PAULDEN AT 520 PM MST 5 MILES NORTH OF CHINO VALLEY AT 530 PM MST HAIL GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AND MOVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3511 11277 3496 11288 3469 11243 3490 11227 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 6, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 6, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 9 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SAT SEP 06 2003
.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PULL
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH DAYS.
.DISCUSSION...FOR SUNDAY DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE
CURRENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
STORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WHERE THE
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED. MONDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY AND THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT WILL BE JUST TO
OUR SOUTH COULD SURGE BACK EARLIER THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. WE
WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR
A POTENTIALLY VERY WET TWO DAYS.
IN THE EXTENDED...A WARM MID LEVEL CAP WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND STORM FREE
CONDITIONS. BEYOND THURSDAY...MOISTURE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK.
HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PERIOD AS COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND TROUGH IN SEPTEMBER
USUALLY MEANS SHOWERS.
.NOTE...EFFECTIVE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 1 2003...THE TEMPERATURES AND
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TABLE (BELOW) WILL NO LONGER BE
APPENDED TO THIS PRODUCT. THE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING
DAYTIME WEATHER...WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE RECENTLY ADOPTED TABULAR
STATE FORECAST (SFT). THE SFT PROVIDES THESE FORECASTS THROUGH 7
DAYS. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS PRODUCT IS FPUS65 KPSR. THE PRODUCT
IDENTIFIER IS PHXSFTAZ. USING THE INTERNET...YOU CAN ACCESS THE SFT
DIRECTLY AT HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/CGI-BIN/GPRODUCT.PL?FLGPHXSFTAZ
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON SUN MON TUE TON SUN MON TUE
FLAGSTAFF 048/077 047/076 050/071 020 020 010 020 030 040
WINSLOW 061/089 059/088 062/083 010 000 000 000 020 040
PRESCOTT 058/085 058/084 061/079 020 000 000 000 020 040
PAGE 069/091 069/089 072/084 010 000 000 000 010 030
WINDOW ROCK 052/080 050/079 053/074 030 010 000 020 030 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 064/086 062/085 065/080 020 000 000 010 020 030
COTTONWOOD 066/097 066/096 069/091 020 000 000 010 020 030
GRAND CANYON 052/079 051/077 052/072 020 000 000 000 020 030
GREER 047/074 046/073 049/068 030 020 010 020 040 050
HEBER 053/081 052/081 053/076 030 020 010 020 030 040
JACOB LAKE 048/074 047/073 050/068 020 000 000 000 020 030
NAVAJO N.M. 058/078 056/077 059/072 020 000 000 010 020 030
PAYSON 058/091 058/089 061/084 010 000 000 010 020 040
SEDONA 065/094 065/092 068/087 020 010 000 020 020 040
SELIGMAN 056/087 056/086 059/081 010 000 000 000 020 030
SHOW LOW 056/083 055/082 058/077 030 010 000 020 030 040
ST. JOHNS 060/088 058/087 058/082 020 010 000 010 030 040
WUPATKI N.M. 063/091 061/090 064/085 020 010 000 000 020 040Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 6, 10:00 AM MST, 6 hours 39 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-070200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST SAT SEP 6 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES WHERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 12:30 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 30 min |
| Sep 6, 1:54 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila, Navajo | 66 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.