Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 6, 2003, 12:30 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 6, 2003, 12:30 PM MST (19:30 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 6, 2003, 1:00 PM MST
- In force
- 30 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 75 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1649 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -81 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1453 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 15 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 36 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 32 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS55 KFGZ 061930 SVRFGZ AZC025-062000- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1227 PM MST SAT SEP 6 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 100 PM MST * AT 1225 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER ROCK SPRINGS...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTH OF NEW RIVER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... OVER ROCK SPRINGS AT 1245 PM MST OVER BLACK CANYON CITY AT 1250 PM MST HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AND MOVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3422 11223 3407 11236 3387 11207 3405 11191 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 6, 9:30 AM MST, 3 hours earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 6, 9:30 AM MST, 3 hours before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT SEP 06 2003
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE STATE. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS UTAH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA.
.DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WEAK UPWARD MOTION TO NORTHERN THROUGH THE DAY. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO ANY STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WHERE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION AND TERRAIN
INDUCED LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES.
FOR SUNDAY DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE CURRENT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. STORMS WILL REMAIN
SCATTERED NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WHERE THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED. MONDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY DURING
THE DAY AND THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT WILL BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH COULD
SURGE BACK EARLIER THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. WE WILL BE KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR A POTENTIALLY VERY
WET TWO DAYS.
.NOTE...EFFECTIVE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 1 2003...THE TEMPERATURES AND
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TABLE (BELOW) WILL NO LONGER BE
APPENDED TO THIS PRODUCT. THE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING
DAYTIME WEATHER...WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE RECENTLY ADOPTED TABULAR
STATE FORECAST (SFT). THE SFT PROVIDES THESE FORECASTS THROUGH 7
DAYS. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS PRODUCT IS FPUS65 KPSR. THE PRODUCT
IDENTIFIER IS PHXSFTAZ. USING THE INTERNET...YOU CAN ACCESS THE SFT
DIRECTLY AT HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/CGI-BIN/GPRODUCT.PL?FLGPHXSFTAZ
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES HI/LO PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TDY TON SUN MON TDY TON SUN MON
FLAGSTAFF 075/048 077/046 076/048 040 030 020 000 020 010
WINSLOW 086/061 089/058 088/060 020 020 000 000 000 000
PRESCOTT 083/058 085/057 084/059 040 030 020 000 000 000
PAGE 089/069 091/068 089/070 030 020 000 000 000 000
WINDOW ROCK 078/052 080/049 079/051 040 030 020 020 020 020
CANYON DE CHELLY 084/064 086/061 085/063 030 020 000 000 010 000
COTTONWOOD 095/066 097/065 096/067 030 020 000 000 000 000
GRAND CANYON 077/052 079/050 077/050 030 020 000 000 000 000
GREER 070/047 074/045 073/047 040 030 020 020 020 020
HEBER 079/053 081/051 081/051 040 030 020 000 020 010
JACOB LAKE 072/048 074/046 073/048 030 020 000 000 000 000
NAVAJO N.M. 076/058 078/055 077/057 040 020 010 000 010 000
PAYSON 089/058 091/057 089/059 030 030 000 000 000 000
SEDONA 092/065 094/064 092/066 030 020 010 000 000 000
SELIGMAN 085/056 087/055 086/057 020 020 010 000 000 000
SHOW LOW 081/056 083/054 082/056 040 030 010 010 020 010
ST. JOHNS 085/060 088/057 087/056 030 020 010 010 010 010
WUPATKI N.M. 087/063 091/060 090/062 030 020 000 000 000 000Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 6, 10:00 AM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-070200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST SAT SEP 6 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES WHERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 1:54 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila, Navajo | 66 min |
| Sep 6, 4:39 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 51 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.