Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 1, 2003, 2:18 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 1, 2003, 2:18 PM MST (21:18 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 1, 2003, 2:45 PM MST
- In force
- 27 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 111 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 125 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -134 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1918 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 21 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 65 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS55 KFGZ 012118 SVRFGZ AZC025-012145- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 217 PM MST MON SEP 1 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 245 PM MST * AT 212 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF PONDEROSA PARK...MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 MPH. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3444 11258 3431 11243 3437 11235 3450 11251 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 1, 9:00 AM MST, 5 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 1, 9:00 AM MST, 5 hours 18 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST MON SEP 01 2003
.SYNOPSIS...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN TO A MOIST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN
N.M. THIS MORNING. LOWER LEVEL WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION PER AREA SOUNDINGS. THIS IS TAPPING INTO MOISTURE FROM AN
MCS THAT FORMED OVER NORTHERN MEX LAST NIGHT. SFC OBS SHOW DPS IN
SW AZ ON THE RISE AND GPS-IPWV INDICATING PW ALSO INCREASING.
FGZ 12Z SOUNDING CAPPED AT 500MB BUT PSR AND TUS SOUNDINGS LESS
CAPPED. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIM AND WHITES. WITH MOISTURE MOVING
INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL BUMP UP POPS THERE. MESO-ETA SHOWS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER THE CWA ALL THIS WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A
TYPICAL MONSOON SCENARIO. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. DF
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES HI/LO PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TDY TON TUE WED TDY TON TUE WED
FLAGSTAFF 081/050 080/051 080/052 030 010 030 030 040 020
WINSLOW 092/061 092/062 092/063 000 000 010 010 010 020
PRESCOTT 088/060 087/061 087/062 030 010 030 020 030 020
PAGE 093/067 091/068 091/069 000 000 010 000 010 020
WINDOW ROCK 083/048 082/049 082/050 000 010 020 020 030 020
CANYON DE CHELLY 089/055 088/056 088/057 000 000 010 010 020 020
COTTONWOOD 099/068 098/069 098/070 020 010 030 020 030 020
GRAND CANYON 082/051 081/052 081/053 010 010 030 020 030 020
GREER 078/049 077/050 077/051 030 010 030 030 040 020
HEBER 086/053 085/054 085/055 020 010 030 030 040 020
JACOB LAKE 078/050 077/051 077/052 010 010 020 020 020 020
NAVAJO N.M. 081/054 080/055 080/056 000 000 010 010 020 020
PAYSON 091/060 091/061 091/062 030 010 030 030 030 020
SEDONA 096/067 095/068 095/069 030 010 030 030 030 020
SELIGMAN 090/058 089/059 089/060 010 010 030 030 020 020
SHOW LOW 087/059 086/060 086/061 020 010 030 030 030 020
ST. JOHNS 093/061 092/062 091/063 010 010 030 020 020 020
WUPATKI N.M. 094/063 094/064 094/065 000 000 020 010 020 020Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 1, 9:35 AM MST, 4 hours 43 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-020200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 935 AM MST MON SEP 1 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING THE MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS MAINLY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM ...THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. LOOK FOR THE STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Sep 1, 2:02 PM MST, 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
0202 PM MST MON SEP 01 2003
TIME(MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
1145 AM DONEY PARK AZ 0.75 IN HAIL
09/01/03 COCONINO
1230 PM 10 NW FLAGSTAFF AZ 1.00 IN HAIL
09/01/03 COCONINO
DFThe office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 12:00 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 30 min |
| Sep 1, 12:35 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 25 min |
| Sep 1, 1:06 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Apache | 24 min |
| Sep 1, 2:40 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 35 min |
| Sep 1, 3:12 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 3 min |
| Sep 1, 3:16 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 29 min |
| Sep 1, 3:25 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 35 min |
| Sep 1, 4:15 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 30 min |
| Sep 1, 4:31 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila | 29 min |
| Sep 1, 4:56 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 64 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.