Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST MON SEP 01 2003

.SYNOPSIS...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN TO A MOIST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN
N.M. THIS MORNING. LOWER LEVEL WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION PER AREA SOUNDINGS. THIS IS TAPPING INTO MOISTURE FROM AN
MCS THAT FORMED OVER NORTHERN MEX LAST NIGHT. SFC OBS SHOW DPS IN
SW AZ ON THE RISE AND GPS-IPWV INDICATING PW ALSO INCREASING.
FGZ 12Z SOUNDING CAPPED AT 500MB BUT PSR AND TUS SOUNDINGS LESS
CAPPED. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIM AND WHITES. WITH MOISTURE MOVING
INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL BUMP UP POPS THERE. MESO-ETA SHOWS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING OVER THE CWA ALL THIS WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A
TYPICAL MONSOON SCENARIO. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. DF

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO          PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   TUE     WED       TDY TON   TUE   WED
FLAGSTAFF        081/050 080/051 080/052     030 010 030 030 040 020
WINSLOW          092/061 092/062 092/063     000 000 010 010 010 020
PRESCOTT         088/060 087/061 087/062     030 010 030 020 030 020
PAGE             093/067 091/068 091/069     000 000 010 000 010 020
WINDOW ROCK      083/048 082/049 082/050     000 010 020 020 030 020
CANYON DE CHELLY 089/055 088/056 088/057     000 000 010 010 020 020
COTTONWOOD       099/068 098/069 098/070     020 010 030 020 030 020
GRAND CANYON     082/051 081/052 081/053     010 010 030 020 030 020
GREER            078/049 077/050 077/051     030 010 030 030 040 020
HEBER            086/053 085/054 085/055     020 010 030 030 040 020
JACOB LAKE       078/050 077/051 077/052     010 010 020 020 020 020
NAVAJO N.M.      081/054 080/055 080/056     000 000 010 010 020 020
PAYSON           091/060 091/061 091/062     030 010 030 030 030 020
SEDONA           096/067 095/068 095/069     030 010 030 030 030 020
SELIGMAN         090/058 089/059 089/060     010 010 030 030 020 020
SHOW LOW         087/059 086/060 086/061     020 010 030 030 030 020
ST. JOHNS        093/061 092/062 091/063     010 010 030 020 020 020
WUPATKI N.M.     094/063 094/064 094/065     000 000 020 010 020 020

AZZ004>018-037>040-020200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST MON SEP 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING THE MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS MAINLY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM
...THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. LOOK FOR THE STORMS TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.