Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 22, 2003, 2:46 PM MST for Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 29 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 22, 2003, 2:46 PM MST (21:46 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 22, 2003, 3:15 PM MST
- In force
- 29 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Coconino County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 62 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -143 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1795 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 87 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 106 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS55 KFGZ 222146 SVRFGZ AZC005-025-222215- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 246 PM MST FRI AUG 22 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA NORTH CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 315 PM MST * AT 243 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SELIGMAN...OR ABOUT 36 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHINO VALLEY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... 5 MILES EAST OF SELIGMAN AT 305 PM MST HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AND MOVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3513 11288 3514 11266 3540 11269 3538 11290
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 22, 2:30 PM MST, 16 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 22, 2:30 PM MST, 16 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST FRI AUG 22 2003
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHLAND. EXPECT AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
.DISCUSSION...CONVERGENT/DIVERGENT COUPLET WE DISCUSSED THIS MORNING
LINED UP ALONG AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH WESTERN YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LOTS AND LOTS OF CONVECTION ALONG
THIS LINE...MOST OF IT TORRENTIAL RAIN...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE. THIS
WILL BE THE TROUBLE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS SCHEDULED. REGION AFFECTED BY AN EASTERLY
WAVE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A VERY FAVORABLE STORM ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
CIRCULATION...AND WE WILL CARRY A MODERATE GRADE MONSOON FORECAST
RIGHT ON THROUGH DAY SEVEN. PETERSON.
.FGZ...FFA ALL OF YAVAPAI/COCONINO COUNTIES UNTIL 11 PM MST.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON SAT SUN MON TON SAT SUN MON
FLAGSTAFF 052/075 050/074 049/076 040 050 040 050 030 040
WINSLOW 065/088 064/086 063/088 030 040 030 040 020 030
PRESCOTT 063/083 062/081 061/083 030 050 040 050 030 040
PAGE 068/090 067/087 066/089 030 030 030 030 020 030
WINDOW ROCK 054/082 053/078 052/080 030 040 040 050 030 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 062/088 061/084 060/086 030 040 040 040 030 040
COTTONWOOD 071/094 070/092 069/094 020 040 030 040 020 030
GRAND CANYON 052/076 050/075 049/077 040 040 040 050 030 040
GREER 049/070 047/069 046/071 030 050 040 050 040 050
HEBER 054/080 052/079 051/081 030 050 040 050 030 040
JACOB LAKE 052/073 050/072 049/074 040 050 040 050 030 040
NAVAJO N.M. 059/082 058/078 057/080 040 040 040 040 030 040
PAYSON 064/087 063/085 062/087 020 030 040 040 030 030
SEDONA 069/091 068/089 067/091 030 040 030 040 030 030
SELIGMAN 056/086 055/084 054/086 030 050 040 050 030 040
SHOW LOW 060/080 058/079 057/081 030 050 040 050 040 050
ST. JOHNS 060/083 059/081 058/083 040 050 040 050 030 040
WUPATKI N.M. 066/090 065/088 064/090 030 040 030 040 020 030Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 22, 10:10 AM MST, 4 hours 36 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-230200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1010 AM MST FRI AUG 22 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES FROM NOON MST UNTIL 11 PM MST TODAY... STRONG STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATCH AREA BY 11 AM MST...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL SIZES OF AROUND AN INCH WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOIL CONDITIONS OVER YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES ARE SATURATED...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF WILL BE MORE BENIGN AND LESS WIDESPREAD. ONLY ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...WITH MUCH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN MODERATE OVER YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 1:48 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 57 min |
| Aug 22, 2:13 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 32 min |
| Aug 22, 2:15 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 30 min |
| Aug 22, 3:18 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 27 min |
| Aug 22, 3:44 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 31 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.