Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 22, 2003, 2:13 PM MST for Coconino County, Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 22, 2003, 2:13 PM MST (21:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 22, 2003, 2:45 PM MST
- In force
- 32 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Coconino County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 62 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -143 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1795 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 22 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 87 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 106 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS55 KFGZ 222113 SVRFGZ AZC005-025-222145- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 211 PM MST FRI AUG 22 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA NORTH CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 245 PM MST * AT 203 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...OR ABOUT 14 MILES EAST OF SELIGMAN OVER I-40...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... MILE POST 130 ON I-40 AT 230 PM MST REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3539 11281 3523 11292 3515 11270 3531 11261
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 22, 9:40 AM MST, 4 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 22, 9:40 AM MST, 4 hours 33 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST FRI AUG 22 2003
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHLAND. EXPECT AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
.DISCUSSION...WEAK BAROCLINICITY BETWEEN THE A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST AND THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND 250-300MB DIV...ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE THIS MORNINGS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER. UPPER LEVEL DIV AND
LOW LEVEL CONV SIGNATURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
OUT THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME JUST TO OUR SOUTH SQUARELY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. JUST ENOUGH SHEAR EXISTS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
STORM MOTION. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WE WILL
COORDINATE LATER THIS MORNING. REGION AFFECTED BY AN EASTERLY WAVE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A VERY FAVORABLE STORM ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AT
LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. PETERSON.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES HI/LO PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TDY TON SAT SUN TDY TON SAT SUN
FLAGSTAFF 076/054 074/053 076/050 050 040 050 020 040 020
WINSLOW 092/066 090/065 089/062 040 030 040 020 030 020
PRESCOTT 085/061 083/060 086/057 040 030 050 020 040 020
PAGE 093/072 091/071 091/068 030 020 030 020 020 020
WINDOW ROCK 085/054 083/053 082/050 040 030 050 020 040 020
CANYON DE CHELLY 094/065 092/064 088/061 040 030 040 020 030 020
COTTONWOOD 096/070 094/069 097/066 040 030 040 020 030 020
GRAND CANYON 082/053 080/052 081/049 040 030 040 020 030 020
GREER 073/049 071/048 071/045 060 050 060 030 060 030
HEBER 083/054 081/053 081/050 050 040 050 020 040 020
JACOB LAKE 076/052 074/051 074/048 040 030 040 020 040 020
NAVAJO N.M. 085/059 083/058 082/055 040 030 040 020 030 020
PAYSON 091/061 089/060 090/057 040 030 040 030 040 030
SEDONA 095/069 093/068 094/065 040 030 050 020 030 020
SELIGMAN 089/059 087/058 089/055 030 030 040 020 020 020
SHOW LOW 085/057 083/056 081/053 050 040 050 020 040 020
ST. JOHNS 093/065 091/064 089/061 040 030 050 020 040 020
WUPATKI N.M. 093/065 091/064 091/061 040 030 040 020 030 020Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 22, 10:10 AM MST, 4 hours 3 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-230200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1010 AM MST FRI AUG 22 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES FROM NOON MST UNTIL 11 PM MST TODAY... STRONG STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ALONG A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH MOST OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATCH AREA BY 11 AM MST...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL SIZES OF AROUND AN INCH WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOIL CONDITIONS OVER YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES ARE SATURATED...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF WILL BE MORE BENIGN AND LESS WIDESPREAD. ONLY ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS...WITH MUCH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN MODERATE OVER YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 1:48 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 57 min |
| Aug 22, 2:15 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 30 min |
| Aug 22, 2:46 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 29 min |
| Aug 22, 3:18 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 27 min |
| Aug 22, 3:44 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 31 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.