Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 24, 2003Coconino County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 24, 2003, 5:33 PM MST for Coconino County, Arizona. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 24, 2003, 5:33 PM MST (00:33 UTC)
Expired
Jul 24, 2003, 6:00 PM MST
In force
27 min
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Coconino County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 188 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 00:00Z on 2003-07-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 95 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Flgstf/Belemont, AZ at 00:00Z on 2003-07-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 126 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
95 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-53 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1617 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
126 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
240 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

002 
WUUS55 KFGZ 250033
SVRFGZ
AZC005-250100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
532 PM MST THU JUL 24 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 600 PM MST

* AT 522 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER WEST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY...OR ABOUT 43
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF DESERT VIEW AT GRAND CANYON...MOVING NORTHWEST  
  AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AT 550 PM MST

HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS STORM.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF.

LAT...LON 3576 11283 3564 11247 3578 11236 3602 11266

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 24, 3:15 PM MST, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 24, 3:15 PM MST, 2 hours 18 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST THU JUL 24 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF ARIZONA...HOWEVER OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER NEVADA THROUGH
TUESDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE DAY TO DAY INCREASES IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A STRONGER EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THIS FEATURE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA...AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TC
.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON FRI   SAT     SUN        TON FRI   SAT     SUN
FLAGSTAFF        052/082 053/082 051/078      040 050 040 050 040 070
WINSLOW          064/095 065/096 063/093      020 040 020 030 020 050
PRESCOTT         064/090 063/090 061/087      030 050 030 040 030 060
PAGE             075/097 073/098 071/094      030 040 030 030 030 050
WINDOW ROCK      057/088 056/086 054/083      040 050 030 030 030 050
CANYON DE CHELLY 065/096 064/094 062/090      030 040 030 030 030 040
COTTONWOOD       072/101 071/101 069/098      020 050 030 030 030 050
GRAND CANYON     051/084 052/084 050/080      030 050 030 040 030 060
GREER            050/080 051/080 049/076      050 050 030 050 030 070
HEBER            058/085 059/085 057/081      040 050 040 050 040 070
JACOB LAKE       052/080 053/080 051/076      030 050 030 040 030 060
NAVAJO N.M.      065/086 064/085 063/081      030 050 030 040 030 060
PAYSON           065/095 064/095 062/092      030 050 030 030 030 050
SEDONA           075/097 074/098 072/096      030 050 030 030 030 050
SELIGMAN         063/093 062/093 060/090      030 050 030 040 030 050
SHOW LOW         060/086 061/086 059/082      030 050 030 050 030 060
ST. JOHNS        067/095 068/096 066/093      030 050 030 040 030 060
WUPATKI N.M.     069/097 070/098 068/095      030 050 030 030 030 050
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 24, 10:15 AM MST, 7 hours 18 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-250200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1015 AM MST THU JUL 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY OVER YESTERDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN BETWEEN 10 AM TO 11 AM MST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE RIM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DROPPING WEST OFF THE RIM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLATEAUS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 25, 1:50 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningFGZCoconino

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.