Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 24, 2003, 5:33 PM MST for Coconino County, Arizona. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 24, 2003, 5:33 PM MST (00:33 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 24, 2003, 6:00 PM MST
- In force
- 27 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Coconino County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 188 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 95 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -53 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1617 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 126 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 240 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
002 WUUS55 KFGZ 250033 SVRFGZ AZC005-250100- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 532 PM MST THU JUL 24 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 600 PM MST * AT 522 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER WEST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY...OR ABOUT 43 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DESERT VIEW AT GRAND CANYON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... RURAL WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY AT 550 PM MST HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS STORM. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3576 11283 3564 11247 3578 11236 3602 11266
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 24, 3:15 PM MST, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 24, 3:15 PM MST, 2 hours 18 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST THU JUL 24 2003
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF ARIZONA...HOWEVER OVER THE WEEKEND IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
BACK TO CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER NEVADA THROUGH
TUESDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE DAY TO DAY INCREASES IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A STRONGER EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THIS FEATURE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA...AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TC
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON FRI SAT SUN TON FRI SAT SUN
FLAGSTAFF 052/082 053/082 051/078 040 050 040 050 040 070
WINSLOW 064/095 065/096 063/093 020 040 020 030 020 050
PRESCOTT 064/090 063/090 061/087 030 050 030 040 030 060
PAGE 075/097 073/098 071/094 030 040 030 030 030 050
WINDOW ROCK 057/088 056/086 054/083 040 050 030 030 030 050
CANYON DE CHELLY 065/096 064/094 062/090 030 040 030 030 030 040
COTTONWOOD 072/101 071/101 069/098 020 050 030 030 030 050
GRAND CANYON 051/084 052/084 050/080 030 050 030 040 030 060
GREER 050/080 051/080 049/076 050 050 030 050 030 070
HEBER 058/085 059/085 057/081 040 050 040 050 040 070
JACOB LAKE 052/080 053/080 051/076 030 050 030 040 030 060
NAVAJO N.M. 065/086 064/085 063/081 030 050 030 040 030 060
PAYSON 065/095 064/095 062/092 030 050 030 030 030 050
SEDONA 075/097 074/098 072/096 030 050 030 030 030 050
SELIGMAN 063/093 062/093 060/090 030 050 030 040 030 050
SHOW LOW 060/086 061/086 059/082 030 050 030 050 030 060
ST. JOHNS 067/095 068/096 066/093 030 050 030 040 030 060
WUPATKI N.M. 069/097 070/098 068/095 030 050 030 030 030 050Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 24, 10:15 AM MST, 7 hours 18 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-250200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1015 AM MST THU JUL 24 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY OVER YESTERDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN 10 AM TO 11 AM MST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE RIM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING WEST OFF THE RIM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PLATEAUS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 1:50 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.