Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
215 AM MST FRI JUL 25 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.DISCUSSION...TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME WITH
MODERATE LEVELS OF MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
THE 4-CORNERS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE STEERING FLOW STARTS TO
CHANGE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH RETROGRADES INTO NEVADA. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS STILL
ADVERTISING A SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A DECENT CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK AND
THE CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS. FLOW REMAINS
EASTERLY TO ALMOST NORTHEASTERLY AFTER THIS FEATURE GOES BY...BUT
BY THIS TIME...THE REGION IN ENTRENCHED WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SO FAR THIS SEASON. WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE GRADE MONSOON FORECAST
AFTER MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PETERSON.

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   SAT     SUN        TDY TON   SAT   SUN
FLAGSTAFF        082/056 083/057 079/054      050 030 050 030 060
WINSLOW          094/067 096/068 092/065      030 030 030 030 040
PRESCOTT         089/068 091/069 088/066      050 030 050 040 060
PAGE             097/078 098/078 093/075      030 030 020 030 040
WINDOW ROCK      088/057 090/058 086/055      040 030 040 040 060
CANYON DE CHELLY 094/067 096/068 092/065      030 020 030 020 050
COTTONWOOD       100/076 102/077 099/074      030 020 040 030 040
GRAND CANYON     084/055 085/056 081/053      050 030 040 030 060
GREER            078/052 079/053 075/050      050 030 050 040 060
HEBER            087/057 088/058 084/055      050 030 050 030 060
JACOB LAKE       080/056 081/057 077/054      050 030 040 030 060
NAVAJO N.M.      088/061 090/062 086/059      040 030 030 030 050
PAYSON           094/069 096/070 093/067      040 030 040 040 050
SEDONA           098/074 100/075 097/072      040 030 040 030 050
SELIGMAN         092/061 094/062 091/059      050 030 040 030 050
SHOW LOW         088/064 089/065 085/062      050 030 050 040 060
ST. JOHNS        088/062 090/063 086/060      030 030 030 030 050
WUPATKI N.M.     096/070 098/071 094/068      030 030 030 030 040

AZZ004>018-037>040-260200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1020 AM MST FRI JUL 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF
FLAGSTAFF. THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND MORE
INSTABILITY WILL HELP THUNDERSTORM BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THERE WILL
BE A THREAT OF A FEW STORMS ABLE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. FOR THE REST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA THERE WILL BE ONLY A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 1100 AM MST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.