Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH.

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AZ...PRIMARILY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALOFT RUN PARALLEL TO THESE TERRAIN FEATURES AND
SHOULD PROMOTE ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN
THE MEANTIME...WE WILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND TS DEVELOPMENT IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA AS MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THESE AREAS WILL ALLOW CONTINUING SURFACE HEATING. AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS SHOULD DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CENTER OF 500MB HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NEVADA AND UTAH WILL
SAUNTER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS BY THURSDAY. THIS SHIFT WILL FAVOR A STEERING FLOW WHICH
WILL SLOWLY VEER UNTIL BECOMING A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN AZ ON MID-DAY WEDNESDAY. SEE NO GREAT
REDUCTION/INCREASE IN MOISTURE OR STABILITY TO STRAY FROM A MODERATE
MONSOON FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. KD

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON WED   THU     FRI        TON WED   THU     FRI
FLAGSTAFF        056/085 055/085 056/083      030 050 030 050 030 040
WINSLOW          067/096 066/095 067/093      020 030 020 030 020 030
PRESCOTT         070/093 067/092 068/090      040 040 030 040 030 040
PAGE             078/100 076/098 077/096      020 020 030 030 030 020
WINDOW ROCK      056/088 055/087 056/085      030 040 020 030 020 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 066/094 065/093 066/091      030 020 030 030 030 030
COTTONWOOD       076/102 074/101 076/101      030 030 020 030 020 030
GRAND CANYON     056/087 054/087 055/085      030 040 030 040 030 030
GREER            053/081 051/081 052/079      030 050 030 050 030 060
HEBER            058/090 056/090 057/088      030 050 030 050 030 040
JACOB LAKE       057/083 055/083 056/081      030 040 030 040 030 040
NAVAJO N.M.      060/088 059/087 060/085      030 040 030 040 030 030
PAYSON           072/098 070/097 071/095      030 030 030 040 030 040
SEDONA           073/102 072/099 074/098      030 040 030 040 030 030
SELIGMAN         070/096 068/095 069/093      030 040 030 040 030 030
SHOW LOW         065/091 063/091 064/089      030 050 030 040 030 040
ST. JOHNS        063/090 061/089 062/087      030 040 030 040 030 030
WUPATKI N.M.     070/098 068/097 070/095      030 040 030 040 030 030

AZZ004>018-037>040-230200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AFTER 11
AM MST AND THEN OVER OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THE MID-AFTERNOON
HOURS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO LOWER ELEVATION PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AND
EASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.