Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 22, 2003, 12:55 PM MST for Apache County, Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 35 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 22, 2003, 12:55 PM MST (19:55 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 22, 2003, 1:30 PM MST
- In force
- 35 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Apache County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 211 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 58 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -187 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2155 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 15 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 22 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 123 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
424 WUUS55 KFGZ 221955 SVRFGZ AZC001-017-222030- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1254 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN APACHE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA * UNTIL 130 PM MST * AT 1245 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER VERNON...OR ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF SHOW LOW...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... RURAL SOUTHWESTERN APACHE COUNTY AT 110 PM MST RURAL SOUTHEASTERN NAVAJO COUNTY AT 120 PM MST THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE HAIL WITH A DIAMETER OF UP TO AN INCH NEAR THE CORE OF THE STORM. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3430 10993 3417 10970 3422 10963 3446 10976
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 22, 9:15 AM MST, 3 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 22, 9:15 AM MST, 3 hours 40 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2003
.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH.
.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE IS CONTINUING IN THE ATMOSPHERE THIS
MORNING AS BOTH THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND GPS-BASED
PRECIPITABLE WATER LINGER IN THE 0.85 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE OVER
FLAGSTAFF. STEERING FLOW SHOULD SHIFT TO A MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A WAVE THAT PASSED WESTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA LAST NIGHT. SKIES ARE STARTING OUT MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND EXPECT HEATING TO TRIGGER
FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY IN THAT AREA THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE HAS GOOD HOLD ON EXPECTED DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION AND
NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. KD
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES HI/LO PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TDY TON WED THU TDY TON WED THU
FLAGSTAFF 086/057 085/056 085/056 050 030 050 030 050
WINSLOW 098/068 096/067 095/067 020 020 030 020 030
PRESCOTT 094/072 093/070 092/070 030 040 040 030 040
PAGE 102/078 100/077 098/077 020 020 020 030 030
WINDOW ROCK 089/056 088/056 087/056 030 030 030 020 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 095/066 094/066 093/066 020 030 020 030 030
COTTONWOOD 105/080 104/078 103/078 020 030 030 020 030
GRAND CANYON 088/056 087/055 087/055 030 020 030 030 040
GREER 082/053 081/052 081/052 050 030 050 030 050
HEBER 091/058 090/057 090/057 050 030 050 030 050
JACOB LAKE 084/057 083/056 083/056 030 020 030 030 040
NAVAJO N.M. 089/060 088/060 087/060 030 030 030 030 040
PAYSON 099/073 098/071 097/071 030 040 030 040 040
SEDONA 103/078 102/076 101/076 030 030 030 020 030
SELIGMAN 097/065 096/063 095/063 040 030 030 030 040
SHOW LOW 092/065 091/064 091/064 040 030 040 030 040
ST. JOHNS 092/063 090/062 089/062 040 030 040 030 040
WUPATKI N.M. 100/071 098/070 097/070 020 020 030 020 030Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 22, 10:00 AM MST, 2 hours 55 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-230200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AFTER 11 AM MST AND THEN OVER OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO LOWER ELEVATION PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AND EASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 22, 9:32 AM MST, 3 hours 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
0932 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2003
TIME(MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0500 PM 12 WNW WHITERIVER AZ 1.25 IN HAIL
07/21/03 GILA
JJThe office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 5:03 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila | 27 min |
| Jul 22, 3:46 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila | 44 min |
| Jul 22, 4:32 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila | 28 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.