Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Grand Forks, ND

June 17, 2003Grand Forks County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 17, 2003, 12:56 PM CDT for Grand Forks County, North Dakota. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 17, 2003, 12:56 PM CDT (17:56 UTC)
Expired: Jun 17, 2003, 1:45 PM CDT
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Grand Forks County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 277 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 14 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -217 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1538 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -17 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -7 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

202 
WUUS53 KFGF 171756
SVRFGF
NDC035-171845-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1256 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  GRAND FORKS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT.

* AT 1255 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF MCCANNA...OR ABOUT 27 MILES
  WEST OF GRAND FORKS...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  HONEYFORD AT 105 PM...
  ARVILLA AT 115 PM...
  GRAND FORKS AFB AT 120 PM AND
  EMERADO AT 125 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4814 9766 4800 9783 4773 9724 4790 9707

$$

BERG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 17, 10:15 AM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 17, 10:15 AM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1015 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003.

...CHALLENGE FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES...

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...
BEST SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA. MAIN FEATURE WITH BOUNDARY IS LOWER 50 DEWPOINTS ON
THE BACKSIDE COMPARED TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS POOLING AHEAD OF FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED ABOVE THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH BEST JET
ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

.THIS AFTERNOON...
KEY FOR THE AFTERNOON IS HOW WELL MODELS ARE HANDLING THE TIMING OF
DRIER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE REGION. LATEST ETA APPEARS WAY TOO
FAST AND MAY BE GETTING INTO TIME OF YEAR WHERE EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION
IS NOT HANDLED WELL. AS WAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN NEARS...SOME MID
LEVEL COOLING TAKES PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HELP THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. OVERALL...BEST THUNDER CHANCES APPEAR ACROSS
MINNESOTA WHERE INTERACTION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP. ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND EAST...LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
AVAILABLE AND REGION DOES GET INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE 250
MB JET...WHICH MAY HELP INHIBIT CONVECTION. CHANCES LIKELY RIDING ON
TIMING OF BOUNDARY PASSAGE. WILL LIKELY ADD THUNDER MENTION
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED WEST OF VALLEY AND SCT TO
THE EAST. WILL OPEN UP RANGE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AS WELL WITH SOME
TWEAKS TO SKY COVER NEEDED.

.FGF...NONE.

DONAVON

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 17, 11:38 AM CDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-171930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1138 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO
AN END THIS EVENING WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

DONAVON

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 17, 8:04 AM CDT, 4 hours 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
804 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0710 PM    4 WNW KEMPTON             ND   .88 INCH HAIL
06/16/03   GRAND FORKS                    REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

TG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 17, 2:01 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Grand Forks	4 hr
Jun 17, 2:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Traill	46 min
Jun 17, 3:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Pembina	41 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.