Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Grand Forks, ND

June 17, 2003Pembina County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 17, 2003, 3:49 PM CDT for Pembina County, North Dakota. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 17, 2003, 3:49 PM CDT (20:49 UTC)
Expired: Jun 17, 2003, 4:30 PM CDT
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Pembina County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 171 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 331 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 14 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -217 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1538 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -17 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -7 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 172049
SVRFGF
NDC067-172130-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
348 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NORTHERN PEMBINA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT.

* AT 347 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEROY...OR ABOUT 26 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF LANGDON...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  LEROY AT 415 PM...
  NECHE AT 425 PM AND
  BATHGATE AT 430 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4918 9808 4903 9817 4879 9743 4900 9729

$$

BERG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 17, 2:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 17, 2:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
247 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003.

...CHALLENGE FOR THE EVENING WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES...

...SHORT AFD DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE...

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...
ISOLATED SUPERCELL CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF GRAND FORKS COUNTY AND
MOVING INTO TRAILL COUNTY. BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS FIRING ALONG
DRIER DEWPOINT LINE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.

.OVERNIGHT...
BEST DEWPOINTS ARE NOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS DRIER
PUSH IS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN BOUNDARY IS STILL
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. SOME WEAK THUNDER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY
AND CHANNELED VORTICITY SINKING SOUTH. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.WED-FRI...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 70S AND 80S. FRIDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM AS GOOD SOUTH WINDS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 20 DEGREES CELCIUS. WILL LIMIT TO MID 80S FOR NOW BUT
ISOLATED 90 DEGREES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.EXTENDED...
PROGRESSIVE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD SWING STRONG
FROPA ACROSS REGION SUNDAY. EVENTUAL EASTWARD PUSH TO FRONT MIGHT
BE INHIBITED AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALONG TAIL END OF FRONT LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO MID-WEEK. IN ANY CASE WARM/CONVECTIVE START TO
PERIOD SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MUCH COOLER AND PERHAPS UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS INTO MID-WEEK.

.FGF...NONE

DONAVON/BERG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 17, 11:38 AM CDT, 4 hours 11 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-171930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1138 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO
AN END THIS EVENING WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

DONAVON

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 17, 2:39 PM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
239 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0100 PM    4 E MCCANNA               ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/17/03   GRAND FORKS

0232 PM    1 N MAYVILLE              ND   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/17/03   TRAILL

BB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 17, 2:01 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Grand Forks	4 hr
Jun 17, 12:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks	49 min
Jun 17, 2:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Traill	46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.