Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 19, 2003Steele County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2003, 5:11 AM CDT for Steele County, North Dakota. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2003, 5:11 AM CDT (10:11 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2003, 6:00 AM CDT
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Steele County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 35 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 238 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 691 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -208 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2107 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 91 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 200 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

817 
WUUS53 KFGF 191011
SVRFGF
NDC091-191100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
510 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NORTHERN STEELE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 600 AM CDT.

* AT 506 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SHARON...OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF   
  GRAND FORKS...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  SHERBROOKE AT 515 AM AND
  GOLDEN LAKE AT 520 AM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4765 9798 4745 9795 4747 9749 4765 9752

$$

BRAMER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 3:51 AM CDT, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 3:51 AM CDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
351 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

...DISCUSSION DELAYED BY SEVERE WEATHER...

.OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A COMPLEX
SURFACE PATTERN WITH A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES TO DISGUISE THE SURFACE
FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THEY HAVE UNDERGONE PULSING AND CURRENTLY A SVR IS IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHERN BENSON COUNTY.

.SHORT TERM...WENT WITH ETA FOR GENERAL DETAILS. HAVE INCLUDED
POTENTIAL SEVERE WORDING WITH THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL ZONES TODAY AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AGREE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS
WITH MAXIMUM POSITIVE CAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3000 J/KG TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS AFTERNOON. 850 MB THETA-E VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 350K IN
EXTREME SE ND THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS SETUP. THUS...SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN
BY LATE EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NEARLY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 06Z SUNDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...FORECAST HIGHS ARE ABOUT 3 TO 5 COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE.

.MID TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. POST
FRONTAL SHRA POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AREA WILL BE UNDER A
GLANCING BLOW FROM 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT DROPS ACROSS NE MN IN
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. COOLING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW SCT SHRA
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

.EXTENDED...NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

.FGF...NONE.

BRAMER

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 18, 6:23 AM CDT, 22 hours 48 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-181415-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
623 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
AFTER 2 PM AND SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY
NORTH DAKOTA TO ROSEAU MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VOELKER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 2:55 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson	65 min
Jul 19, 5:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier	51 min
Jul 19, 6:01 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Cavalier	44 min
Jul 19, 6:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier, Ramsey, Walsh	44 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.