Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2003, 2:55 AM CDT for Benson County, North Dakota. It was in force for 65 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 19, 2003, 2:55 AM CDT (07:55 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 19, 2003, 4:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 65 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Benson County, ND
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 691 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -208 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2107 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 45 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 91 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 200 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
496 WUUS53 KFGF 190755 SVRFGF NDC005-190900- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 255 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN BENSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. * UNTIL 400 AM CDT. * AT 249 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MADDOCK...OR ABOUT 31 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 55 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... OBERON AT 305 AM... FORT TOTTEN AT 315 AM AND TOKIO AT 320 AM. REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. LAT...LON 4809 9988 4788 9983 4789 9868 4800 9881 $$ BRAMER
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 18, 8:40 PM CDT, 6 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 8:40 PM CDT, 6 hours 15 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 840 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003 .CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW... 01Z MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE FROM MINNESOTA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WAS SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE (RESULTANT LOW LEVEL FORCING) WAS POOLING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. LATEST WATER VAPOR CONFIRMED STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET PUNCHING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA WAS AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. .FORECAST DETAILS... LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INDICATE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE INCREASING FROM VALLEY WEST. PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING/INSTABILITY POOLING SHOULD BE FOCUSED FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO POINTS NORTHEAST. APPEARS ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME SELF-SUSTAINING THROUGH OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT OF NIL NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET INFLUX OR FAVORABLE AID OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM UPPER LEVEL JET. PRESENT INDICATIONS POINT TO SOME FINE TUNING/SHAVING OF POPS OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT FOR NEW 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE AND HOPEFULLY SHED ADDITIONAL LIGHT ON SITUATION. .FGF...NONE. BERG
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 18, 6:23 AM CDT, 20 hours 32 minutes before
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-181415- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 623 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003 ...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED AFTER 2 PM AND SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY NORTH DAKOTA TO ROSEAU MINNESOTA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VOELKER
The office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 5:11 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Steele | 49 min |
| Jul 19, 5:39 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Cavalier | 51 min |
| Jul 19, 6:01 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Cavalier | 44 min |
| Jul 19, 6:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Cavalier, Ramsey, Walsh | 44 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.